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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Arouca

T T U S T

0–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

26%

35%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

48%

42%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

58%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,07 xG 0,30

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 0

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 2

The table before the match Arouca 12. · Casa Pia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	32	25	3	4	+56	+46.7	78
2	Sp Lisbon	31	23	6	2	+58	+48.9	75
3	Porto	32	20	5	7	+31	+23.3	65
4	Sp Braga	32	19	8	5	+26	+15.5	65
5	Guimaraes	32	14	12	6	+13	+11.7	54
6	Santa Clara	32	15	6	11	+2	+9.2	51
7	Famalicao	32	11	11	10	+5	-6.2	44
8	Estoril	32	11	9	12	-9	-16.1	42
9	Casa Pia	31	11	8	12	-5	-9.0	41
10	Moreirense	32	9	9	14	-11	-5.7	36
11	Nacional	32	9	6	17	-15	-9.4	33
12	Arouca	31	8	9	14	-17	-6.9	33
13	Rio Ave	31	8	9	14	-18	-18.8	33
14	Gil Vicente	31	8	8	15	-12	-9.0	32
15	Estrela	31	7	8	16	-19	-13.7	29
16	Farense	32	5	9	18	-21	-18.5	24
17	AVS	31	4	12	15	-32	-21.8	24
18	Boavista	31	5	6	20	-32	-20.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+40	+30.1	43
2	Porto	16	12	3	1	+25	+22.6	39
3	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+24	+21.8	38
4	Guimaraes	16	9	5	2	+11	+8.4	32
5	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+14	+15.4	31
6	Santa Clara	16	9	2	5	+3	+10.6	29
7	Famalicao	16	6	7	3	+7	+5.5	25
8	Casa Pia	16	7	4	5	+2	-0.6	25
9	Moreirense	16	6	7	3	+1	-1.7	25
10	Nacional	16	7	2	7	-4	-2.9	23
11	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	-1	-4.5	22
12	Estoril	16	6	4	6	-4	-6.2	22
13	Gil Vicente	16	5	4	7	-1	-0.2	19
14	Estrela	16	5	4	7	-5	-4.7	19
15	Arouca	15	4	5	6	-6	-3.8	17
16	AVS	15	3	6	6	-9	-10.2	15
17	Farense	16	3	2	11	-13	-3.2	11
18	Boavista	16	1	3	12	-22	-7.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	11	4	1	+34	+27.2	37
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+16	+16.6	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	4	2	+12	+0.2	34
4	Porto	16	8	2	6	+6	+0.7	26
5	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.3	22
6	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	-1	-1.4	22
7	Estoril	16	5	5	6	-5	-9.9	20
8	Famalicao	16	5	4	7	-2	-11.7	19
9	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-7	-8.4	16
10	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-11	-3.1	16
11	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-10	-12.8	15
12	Farense	16	2	7	7	-8	-15.3	13
13	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-11	-8.8	13
14	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-12	-3.9	11
15	Rio Ave	16	3	2	11	-17	-14.3	11
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-11	-6.5	10
17	Estrela	15	2	4	9	-14	-9.0	10
18	AVS	16	1	6	9	-23	-11.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.