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Eredivisie
Referee: Bjorn Kuipers
Ajax
T T S S T
1–0
Full-time
PSV Eindhoven
S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
2,3
2,2
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
This season — Eredivisie · 20/20 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
75%
70%
Both score Ø 65%
60%
70%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
3,1
2,2
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,1
+1,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%
28 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 1
14 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 1. · PSV Eindhoven 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 20 15 2 3 +42 47
2 AZ Alkmaar 21 15 2 4 +31 47
3 Feyenoord 21 11 7 3 +11 40
4 Willem II 21 12 4 5 +8 40
5 PSV Eindhoven 20 10 6 4 +19 36
6 Vitesse 21 10 5 6 +10 35
7 Utrecht 21 10 4 7 +12 34
8 Groningen 21 8 5 8 +3 29
9 Heerenveen 21 7 7 7 +3 28
10 Heracles 21 7 5 9 +2 26
11 Sparta Rotterdam 21 6 6 9 -6 24
12 Twente 21 6 6 9 -9 24
13 For Sittard 21 6 5 10 -20 23
14 FC Emmen 21 6 4 11 -16 22
15 Zwolle 21 6 3 12 -16 21
16 VVV Venlo 21 6 2 13 -26 20
17 Den Haag 21 4 5 12 -20 17
18 Waalwijk 21 3 2 16 -28 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax PSV Eindhoven
6′
🟨 Daniel Schwaab
P. Schuurs 🔁
↦ J. Veltman
31′
1–0 Q. Promes
35′
Half-time 1–0
Dušan Tadić 🟨
47′
L. Traoré 🔁
↦ Q. Promes
50′
61′
🔁 K. Mitroglou
↦ S. Lammers
N. Mazraoui 🔁
↦ R. Babel
64′
70′
🔁 R. Rodríguez
↦ O. Boscagli
81′
🔁 C. Madueke
↦ Bruma
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
31 N. Tagliafico D
3 J. Veltman D
21 L. Martínez D
28 S. Dest D
6 D. van de Beek M
8 C. Eiting M
29 R. Gravenberch
49 R. Babel F
10 D. Tadić F
11 Q. Promes F
Bench (10)
2 P. Schuurs
23 L. Traoré
12 N. Mazraoui
1 Bruno Varela
15 S. de Jong
4 E. Álvarez
26 J. Ekkelenkamp
9 K. Huntelaar
18 R. Marin
33 D. Kotarski

Coach: E. ten Hag

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1
13 L. Unnerstall G
6 D. Schwaab D
4 N. Viergever D
28 O. Boscagli D
22 D. Dumfries D
8 J. Hendrix M
18 P. Rosario M
24 M. Ihattaren M
7 Bruma M
14 S. Lammers F
19 C. Gakpo M
Bench (9)
11 K. Mitroglou
68 R. Rodríguez
56 C. Madueke
30 R. Thomas
5 T. Baumgartl
21 R. Ruiter
41 M. van de Meulenhof
25 R. Doan
33 J. Teze

Coach: E. Faber

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,37
U
5,18
B
7,19
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,44
U2,5 ✓
2,74
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Bjorn Kuipers · 97 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.