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Eredivisie
Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie
PSV Eindhoven
U S S S S
1–1
Full-time
Ajax
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,5
4,8
Scored
2,8
3,8
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+2,8
This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 80%
80%
80%
Points per game
2,6
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
60%
100%
Both score Ø 70%
60%
80%
Average goals
3,4
4,8
Scored
2,8
3,8
Conceded
0,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+2,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%
16 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 10
0 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 3. · Ajax 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Vitesse 7 4 2 1 +3 14
2 Ajax 5 4 1 0 +14 13
3 PSV Eindhoven 5 4 1 0 +11 13
4 Twente 7 3 3 1 +4 12
5 Willem II 7 4 0 3 -1 12
6 Utrecht 7 3 2 2 +3 11
7 Sparta Rotterdam 7 3 2 2 +1 11
8 Heracles 7 3 2 2 -1 11
9 AZ Alkmaar 5 3 1 1 +9 10
10 Feyenoord 6 2 4 0 +2 10
11 VVV Venlo 7 3 0 4 -4 9
12 Heerenveen 7 1 4 2 -1 7
13 Groningen 6 2 1 3 -1 7
14 Zwolle 7 2 1 4 -3 7
15 Den Haag 6 2 0 4 -2 6
16 FC Emmen 7 1 1 5 -9 4
17 For Sittard 6 0 2 4 -8 2
18 Waalwijk 7 0 1 6 -17 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

PSV Eindhoven Ajax
14′
🟨 Daley Blind
Michal Sadílek 🟨
35′
Half-time 0–0
55′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
63′
Q. Promes 0–1
D. Tadić
69′
🔁 D. van de Beek
↦ David Neres
O. Boscagli 🔁
↦ M. Sadílek
76′
C. Gakpo 🔁
↦ J. Hendrix
76′
1–1 D. Malen
C. Gakpo
77′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-3-3
1 J. Zoet G
4 N. Viergever D
5 T. Baumgartl D
22 D. Dumfries D
8 J. Hendrix M
32 M. Sadílek D
18 P. Rosario M
24 M. Ihattaren M
7 Bruma F
10 S. Bergwijn F
9 D. Malen F
Bench (11)
28 O. Boscagli
19 C. Gakpo
33 J. Teze
3 Toni Lato
13 L. Unnerstall
15 É. Gutiérrez
17 I. Afellay
25 R. Doan
21 R. Ruiter
6 D. Schwaab
30 R. Thomas

Coach: M. van Bommel

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
17 D. Blind D
31 N. Tagliafico D
3 J. Veltman D
4 E. Álvarez M
21 L. Martínez M
28 S. Dest D
22 H. Ziyech F
10 D. Tadić F
11 Q. Promes M
7 David Neres F
Bench (8)
6 D. van de Beek
35 K. Scherpen
18 R. Marin
19 Z. Labyad
1 Bruno Varela
15 S. de Jong
9 K. Huntelaar
2 P. Schuurs

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,80
U ✓
3,79
B
2,28
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,46
U2,5 ✓
2,68
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Danny Desmond Makkelie · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.