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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Twente

S S T U T

4–0

Full-time

Excelsior

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,5

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,7

4,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

0,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 6. · Excelsior 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+17	12
2	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+8	10
4	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Twente	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	Groningen	4	1	2	1	-4	5
9	Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	Cambuur	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	FC Emmen	4	1	1	2	-6	4
13	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-8	4
14	Waalwijk	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Utrecht	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Vitesse	4	0	1	3	-9	1
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	0	4	-7	0
18	For Sittard	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	4
3	FC Emmen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Twente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Volendam	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	-3	3
11	Waalwijk	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Vitesse	3	0	1	2	-7	1
15	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	For Sittard	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Cambuur	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Twente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Waalwijk	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Groningen	2	0	1	1	-5	1
14	Volendam	2	0	1	1	-6	1
15	Vitesse	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	For Sittard	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	FC Emmen	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.