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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Heerenveen

S T S T T

2–4

Full-time

Ajax

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,2

This season — Eredivisie · 22/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

32%

63%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 56%

45%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

43% Possession 57%

6 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 11. · Ajax 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	24	16	7	1	+32	55
2	AZ Alkmaar	25	16	5	4	+23	53
3	Ajax	24	15	7	2	+43	52
4	PSV Eindhoven	24	15	4	5	+33	49
5	Twente	22	12	6	4	+22	42
6	Sparta Rotterdam	22	12	6	4	+17	42
7	Waalwijk	24	8	8	8	+2	32
8	Utrecht	23	8	8	7	-3	32
9	Nijmegen	25	6	13	6	+7	31
10	For Sittard	25	8	5	12	-13	29
11	Heerenveen	22	7	6	9	-6	27
12	Go Ahead Eagles	24	6	8	10	-9	26
13	Vitesse	25	5	8	12	-16	23
14	Volendam	24	6	5	13	-25	23
15	FC Emmen	25	4	9	12	-20	21
16	Excelsior	25	6	2	17	-39	20
17	Groningen	25	4	5	16	-25	17
18	Cambuur	24	4	4	16	-23	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	1	1	+29	31
2	Twente	11	9	2	0	+24	29
3	Feyenoord	12	8	4	0	+18	28
4	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+26	25
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	8	1	2	+13	25
6	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	4	1	+11	25
7	Waalwijk	12	6	3	3	+10	21
8	Nijmegen	13	3	9	1	+9	18
9	FC Emmen	13	3	8	2	+0	17
10	Utrecht	11	4	4	3	+0	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	4	4	-1	16
12	Volendam	12	5	1	6	-7	16
13	Excelsior	12	5	1	6	-9	16
14	Groningen	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	For Sittard	13	3	3	7	-8	12
16	Heerenveen	11	3	2	6	-6	11
17	Vitesse	12	2	4	6	-11	10
18	Cambuur	13	2	0	11	-16	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	1	3	+12	28
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+17	27
3	Feyenoord	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	PSV Eindhoven	12	5	3	4	+4	18
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	4	5	2	+4	17
6	For Sittard	12	5	2	5	-5	17
7	Heerenveen	11	4	4	3	+0	16
8	Utrecht	12	4	4	4	-3	16
9	Twente	11	3	4	4	-2	13
10	Nijmegen	12	3	4	5	-2	13
11	Vitesse	13	3	4	6	-5	13
12	Waalwijk	12	2	5	5	-8	11
13	Cambuur	11	2	4	5	-7	10
14	Go Ahead Eagles	12	2	4	6	-8	10
15	Volendam	12	1	4	7	-18	7
16	Groningen	13	1	2	10	-21	5
17	FC Emmen	12	1	1	10	-20	4
18	Excelsior	13	1	1	11	-30	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.