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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Ajax

S U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,7

2,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,42 xG 0,43

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
3	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
4	Twente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
5	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
8	Willem II	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
9	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
10	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
11	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
12	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
14	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
15	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
16	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
3	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
5	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
6	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
7	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
8	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
2	Twente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
3	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
4	Willem II	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
5	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
6	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
7	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
8	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.