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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

NAC Breda

U S S T T

2–1

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,7

2,0

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

1,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

4,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,06 xG 1,38

25% Possession 75%

6 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match NAC Breda 14. · Ajax 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.2	6
2	For Sittard	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.8	6
3	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.1	6
4	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.0	6
5	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.5	4
6	Willem II	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.2	4
7	Twente	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.0	4
8	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
9	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
11	Heerenveen	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
12	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
13	Nijmegen	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.1	0
14	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.2	0
16	Almere City	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
17	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.1	0
18	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
2	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
3	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
4	Willem II	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
5	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Twente	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
9	Heerenveen	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
10	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
11	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
12	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
13	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
14	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
16	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
17	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.9	3
2	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
3	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
4	Groningen	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
5	Twente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
6	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
8	Utrecht	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
9	Willem II	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
10	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
11	Heerenveen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
12	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
14	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
15	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
16	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
17	Waalwijk	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.