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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Estoril

S U S S S

0–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,3

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

80%

60%

Points per game

2,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 3. · Sp Lisbon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+11	14
3	Estoril	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Portimonense	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Guimaraes	6	1	4	1	+3	7
11	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-2	6
12	Vizela	6	1	3	2	-6	6
13	Arouca	6	1	2	3	-6	5
14	Santa Clara	6	1	1	4	-10	4
15	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-4	3
17	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-5	3
18	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vizela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
7	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-4	4
12	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Belenenses	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Maritimo	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Estoril	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Porto	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Guimaraes	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-5	2
12	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-3	1
13	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Arouca	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-7	1
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Santa Clara	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.