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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Sp Lisbon

S S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Gil Vicente

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 58%

77%

39%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

45%

48%

Both score Ø 49%

42%

55%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

56% Possession 44%

22 Shots 3

13 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 11

13 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Gil Vicente 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	32	27	4	1	+61	85
2	Sp Lisbon	31	24	4	3	+42	76
3	Benfica	32	22	5	5	+47	71
4	Sp Braga	32	18	8	6	+21	62
5	Gil Vicente	31	12	12	7	+10	48
6	Guimaraes	32	12	8	12	+4	44
7	Maritimo	32	9	10	13	-4	37
8	Pacos Ferreira	31	9	10	12	-11	37
9	Santa Clara	32	8	13	11	-14	37
10	Estoril	32	8	12	12	-6	36
11	Boavista	32	7	15	10	-13	36
12	Portimonense	32	9	8	15	-14	35
13	Famalicao	32	7	12	13	-8	33
14	Vizela	32	7	11	14	-18	32
15	Arouca	32	7	9	16	-23	30
16	Moreirense	32	6	8	18	-20	26
17	Tondela	31	7	5	19	-23	26
18	Belenenses	32	5	10	17	-31	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+19	37
3	Benfica	16	10	3	3	+21	33
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+13	31
5	Guimaraes	16	8	3	5	+9	27
6	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
7	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+3	21
8	Boavista	16	4	9	3	+0	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	+0	19
11	Maritimo	16	4	6	6	+3	18
12	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
13	Arouca	16	5	3	8	-14	18
14	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-14	18
15	Estoril	16	3	8	5	-1	17
16	Portimonense	16	4	4	8	-6	16
17	Moreirense	16	4	3	9	-4	15
18	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Benfica	16	12	2	2	+26	38
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+8	31
5	Gil Vicente	15	7	6	2	+7	27
6	Estoril	16	5	4	7	-5	19
7	Maritimo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
8	Portimonense	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
11	Boavista	16	3	6	7	-13	15
12	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
13	Vizela	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-14	11
16	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	7	8	-13	10
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.