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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Sp Braga

T S U S T

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 58%

75%

40%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

65%

45%

Both score Ø 40%

35%

45%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

7 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 3. · Arouca 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	20	17	2	1	+39	53
2	Porto	21	16	3	2	+36	51
3	Sp Braga	20	15	1	4	+25	46
4	Sp Lisbon	20	12	2	6	+19	38
5	Guimaraes	20	10	3	7	-1	33
6	Casa Pia	20	9	4	7	-2	31
7	Arouca	20	8	6	6	-5	30
8	Vizela	21	7	5	9	+2	26
9	Chaves	20	6	8	6	-5	26
10	Boavista	20	7	5	8	-8	26
11	Portimonense	21	8	2	11	-9	26
12	Rio Ave	21	6	6	9	-5	24
13	Famalicao	21	7	3	11	-8	24
14	Gil Vicente	21	6	5	10	-7	23
15	Estoril	21	6	4	11	-10	22
16	Santa Clara	21	3	6	12	-14	15
17	Maritimo	21	3	4	14	-25	13
18	Pacos Ferreira	21	3	3	15	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Porto	10	9	0	1	+26	27
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	0	2	+20	24
4	Guimaraes	11	7	2	2	+5	23
5	Sp Braga	9	6	1	2	+13	19
6	Arouca	11	6	1	4	+1	19
7	Boavista	11	5	4	2	+0	19
8	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+0	17
9	Rio Ave	10	5	1	4	+3	16
10	Famalicao	10	5	1	4	+2	16
11	Vizela	10	4	2	4	+5	14
12	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	+0	14
13	Gil Vicente	11	3	4	4	-2	13
14	Chaves	9	2	5	2	+0	11
15	Estoril	10	3	2	5	-6	11
16	Santa Clara	11	2	4	5	-8	10
17	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-5	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	9	0	2	+12	27
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
4	Casa Pia	10	5	2	3	-2	17
5	Chaves	11	4	3	4	-5	15
6	Sp Lisbon	10	4	2	4	-1	14
7	Vizela	11	3	3	5	-3	12
8	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-4	11
9	Arouca	9	2	5	2	-6	11
10	Gil Vicente	10	3	1	6	-5	10
11	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-6	10
12	Portimonense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
13	Rio Ave	11	1	5	5	-8	8
14	Famalicao	11	2	2	7	-10	8
15	Boavista	9	2	1	6	-8	7
16	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	1	7	-9	7
17	Santa Clara	10	1	2	7	-6	5
18	Maritimo	11	1	2	8	-20	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.