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Bundesliga

Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Dortmund

U T T S S

3–2

Full-time

Hamburg

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Hamburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 46%

65%

27%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

58%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

6,00 xG 1,52

68% Possession 32%

24 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Hamburg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	22	4	1	+72	+50.9	70
2	Dortmund	26	17	7	2	+29	+16.7	58
3	RB Leipzig	27	15	5	7	+18	+13.4	50
4	Stuttgart	26	15	5	6	+17	+6.2	50
5	Hoffenheim	27	15	5	7	+15	+3.5	50
6	Leverkusen	27	13	7	7	+16	+14.7	46
7	Ein Frankfurt	26	10	8	8	+0	-1.9	38
8	Freiburg	26	9	7	10	-6	+4.4	34
9	Augsburg	26	9	4	13	-14	-14.4	31
10	Union Berlin	27	8	7	12	-15	-7.9	31
11	Hamburg	26	7	9	10	-8	-10.7	30
12	M'gladbach	27	7	8	12	-13	-5.9	29
13	Werder Bremen	27	7	7	13	-17	-7.4	28
14	Mainz	26	6	9	11	-10	-7.4	27
15	FC Koln	27	6	8	13	-9	-5.8	26
16	St Pauli	26	6	6	14	-19	-16.2	24
17	Wolfsburg	27	5	6	16	-22	-14.7	21
18	Heidenheim	27	3	6	18	-34	-17.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	13	10	2	1	+19	+12.9	32
3	Stuttgart	13	10	2	1	+10	+6.2	32
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+16	+9.0	29
5	Hoffenheim	13	8	1	4	+13	+7.2	25
6	Freiburg	13	7	4	2	+8	+11.6	25
7	Leverkusen	13	7	3	3	+14	+14.9	24
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	2	4	+5	+4.4	23
9	Augsburg	13	6	3	4	-2	-6.3	21
10	Hamburg	14	5	5	4	+3	-2.0	20
11	Union Berlin	13	4	5	4	-3	+1.8	17
12	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	+1	+0.9	16
13	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-5	-1.2	16
14	St Pauli	12	4	4	4	-5	-2.9	16
15	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-9	+3.3	16
16	Mainz	13	3	5	5	-1	+4.7	14
17	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.2	11
18	Wolfsburg	14	2	3	9	-9	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+29	+20.4	33
2	Dortmund	13	7	5	1	+10	+3.8	26
3	Hoffenheim	14	7	4	3	+2	-3.7	25
4	Leverkusen	14	6	4	4	+2	-0.2	22
5	RB Leipzig	13	6	3	4	+2	+4.4	21
6	Stuttgart	13	5	3	5	+7	+0.0	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	3	6	4	-5	-6.3	15
8	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-9.7	14
9	M'gladbach	14	3	4	7	-8	-4.7	13
10	Mainz	13	3	4	6	-9	-12.1	13
11	Werder Bremen	14	3	3	8	-8	-10.7	12
12	Wolfsburg	13	3	3	7	-13	-12.7	12
13	FC Koln	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.8	10
14	Hamburg	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.7	10
15	Augsburg	13	3	1	9	-12	-8.1	10
16	Freiburg	13	2	3	8	-14	-7.2	9
17	St Pauli	14	2	2	10	-14	-13.3	8
18	Heidenheim	13	1	1	11	-18	-8.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.