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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Guimaraes

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Estoril

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

0,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

5,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,0

4,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,79 xG 0,20

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 7. · Estoril 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.5	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
3	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.3	6
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
5	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
6	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.5	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.4	3
10	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
11	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
14	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.4	1
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
17	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.4	3
2	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
4	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
6	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
7	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
9	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
11	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
12	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
15	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+5	+1.9	3
2	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
4	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
6	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
10	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
11	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.5	0
12	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
13	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
14	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.4	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.