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Conference League
Referee: V Kopiyevsky
Vallecano
S U S S T
3–2
Full-time
Lech Poznan
U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 4/2 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 63%
25%
100%
Average goals
2,8
4,0
Scored
2,3
2,5
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,24 xG 0,37
66% Possession 34%
29 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 3
10 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 6
0 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 1
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Vallecano Lech Poznan
Florian Lejeune ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
9′
Óscar Trejo 🟨
10′
11′
⚽ L. Palma 0–1
J. Pereira
Pathé Ismaël Ciss 🟨
25′
39′
⚽ A. Kozubal 0–2
P. Rodriguez
Half-time 0–2
A. Ratiu 🔁
↦ I. Balliu
55′
P. Diaz 🔁
↦ G. Gumbau
55′
I. Palazon 🔁
↦ O. Trejo
55′
Alemao 🔁
↦ S. Camello
55′
Óscar Valentín 🟨
56′
1–2 I. Palazon ⚽
P. Diaz
58′
60′
🔁 Y. Agnero
↦ M. Ishak
60′
🔁 K. Lisman
↦ P. Rodriguez
60′
🔁 T. Ismaheel
↦ L. Bengtsson
71′
🔁 F. Jagiello
↦ L. Palma
76′
🟨 Bartosz Mrozek
J. de Frutos 🔁
↦ F. Perez
80′
82′
🔁 R. Gumny
↦
2–2 J. de Frutos ⚽
83′
3–2 A. Garcia ⚽
P. Ciss
90′
Álvaro García 🟨
91′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Vallecano

4-3-3
13 A. Batalla G
20 I. Balliu D
24 F. Lejeune D
6 P. Ciss D
22 Pacha D
8 O. Trejo M
23 O. Valentin M
15 G. Gumbau M
21 F. Perez F
10 S. Camello F
18 A. Garcia F
Bench (11)
1 D. Cardenas
30 A. Molina
2 A. Ratiu
4 P. Diaz
7 I. Palazon
9 Alemao
17 U. Lopez
19 J. de Frutos
26 M. de las Sias
28 S. Becerra
33 J. Vertrouwd

Coach: Inigo Perez

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
41 B. Mrozek G
2 J. Pereira D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
16 A. Milic D
15 M. Gurgul D
6 T. Ouma M
43 A. Kozubal M
99 P. Rodriguez M
77 L. Palma M
14 L. Bengtsson M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (11)
31 K. Bakowski
33 M. Pruchniewski
4 J. Moutinho
7 Y. Agnero
19 B. Fiabema
20 R. Gumny
23 G. Thordarson
24 F. Jagiello
27 W. Monka
56 K. Lisman
88 T. Ismaheel

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.