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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Lille

T U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 40%

56%

24%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

53%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,6

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 6

11 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 2. · Toulouse 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	14	2	0	+39	44
2	Lille	18	10	4	4	+11	34
3	Lyon	17	9	4	4	+9	31
4	Montpellier	16	8	5	3	+12	29
5	St Etienne	17	7	6	4	+3	27
6	Marseille	16	8	2	6	+4	26
7	Nice	17	7	5	5	-2	26
8	Reims	18	6	7	5	-3	25
9	Strasbourg	18	5	8	5	+5	23
10	Nimes	17	6	5	6	+2	23
11	Rennes	17	6	5	6	-2	23
12	Bordeaux	16	5	6	5	+0	21
13	Nantes	16	5	5	6	+0	20
14	Angers	16	4	6	6	-2	18
15	Toulouse	17	4	6	7	-11	18
16	Caen	18	3	8	7	-6	17
17	Dijon	17	4	4	9	-12	16
18	Amiens	17	5	1	11	-14	16
19	Monaco	17	3	4	10	-11	13
20	Guingamp	17	1	5	11	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	8	0	0	+24	24
2	Lille	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	St Etienne	8	6	2	0	+10	20
4	Lyon	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Marseille	8	5	2	1	+11	17
6	Montpellier	9	4	3	2	+7	15
7	Bordeaux	9	4	3	2	+3	15
8	Reims	9	4	3	2	+2	15
9	Strasbourg	9	3	4	2	+4	13
10	Nantes	8	3	3	2	+7	12
11	Rennes	8	3	2	3	-2	11
12	Nice	9	3	2	4	-5	11
13	Caen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Nimes	8	2	3	3	+1	9
15	Angers	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Amiens	8	3	0	5	-2	9
17	Toulouse	8	2	3	3	-3	9
18	Dijon	8	2	1	5	-9	7
19	Guingamp	8	0	3	5	-8	3
20	Monaco	8	0	3	5	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+15	20
2	Nice	8	4	3	1	+3	15
3	Montpellier	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Nimes	9	4	2	3	+1	14
5	Lille	9	4	1	4	-1	13
6	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Lyon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Strasbourg	9	2	4	3	+1	10
9	Monaco	9	3	1	5	-3	10
10	Reims	9	2	4	3	-5	10
11	Angers	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Dijon	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Marseille	8	3	0	5	-7	9
14	Toulouse	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	Nantes	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	Caen	9	1	4	4	-5	7
17	St Etienne	9	1	4	4	-7	7
18	Amiens	9	2	1	6	-12	7
19	Bordeaux	7	1	3	3	-3	6
20	Guingamp	9	1	2	6	-14	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.