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Serie A
Referee: Federico La Penna
Napoli
S U S S S
1–0
Full-time
Spal
U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Spal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
83%
0%
Points per game
2,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,8
This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 50%
75%
25%
Points per game
2,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
69%
44%
Both score Ø 44%
50%
38%
Average goals
2,9
2,4
Scored
2,1
0,9
Conceded
0,9
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%
24 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 6
10 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 5
4 Offside 4
13 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Napoli 2. · Spal 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 16 15 1 0 +25 46
2 Napoli 16 12 2 2 +19 38
3 Inter 16 10 2 4 +15 32
4 Lazio 17 8 4 5 +5 28
5 Milan 16 7 6 3 +6 27
6 Atalanta 16 7 3 6 +10 24
7 Roma 16 6 6 4 +7 24
8 Sassuolo 16 6 6 4 +4 24
9 Sampdoria 16 6 5 5 +6 23
10 Fiorentina 16 5 7 4 +7 22
11 Torino 16 5 7 4 +2 22
12 Parma 16 6 3 7 -5 21
13 Cagliari 17 3 8 6 -7 17
14 Empoli 16 4 4 8 -9 16
15 Spal 16 4 4 8 -10 16
16 Genoa 16 4 4 8 -11 16
17 Udinese 16 3 4 9 -9 13
18 Bologna 16 2 6 8 -11 12
19 Frosinone 16 1 5 10 -24 8
20 Chievo 16 0 7 9 -20 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Napoli Spal
38′
🟨 Thiago Cionek
42′
🔁 F. Vicari
↦ J. Djourou
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Albiol
D. Mertens
46′
Marek Hamšík 🟨
46′
50′
🟨 Jasmin Kurtić
Marko Rog 🟨
61′
Fabián Ruiz 🔁
↦ M. Rog
66′
68′
🔁 M. Valoti
↦ M. Valdifiori
S. Luperto 🔁
↦ F. Ghoulam
79′
A. Diawara 🔁
↦ D. Mertens
83′
83′
🔁 S. Floccari
↦ K. Bonifazi
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Napoli

4-4-2
1 A. Meret G
33 Albiol D
26 K. Koulibaly D
23 E. Hysaj D
31 F. Ghoulam D
17 M. Hamšík M
20 P. Zieliński M
30 M. Rog M
14 D. Mertens F
7 José Callejón F
24 L. Insigne F
Bench (12)
8 Fabián Ruiz
13 S. Luperto
42 A. Diawara
2 K. Malcuit
6 Mário Rui
9 S. Verdi
11 A. Ounas
19 N. Maksimović
25 D. Ospina
27 O. Karnezis
34 A. Younes
99 A. Milik

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Spal

3-5-2
1 A. Gomis G
3 J. Djourou D
4 T. Cionek D
14 K. Bonifazi D
93 M. Fares D
28 P. Schiattarella M
16 M. Valdifiori M
19 J. Kurtič M
29 M. Lazzari M
43 A. Paloschi F
7 M. Antenucci F
Bench (12)
23 F. Vicari
8 M. Valoti
10 S. Floccari
5 L. Šimić
17 G. Poluzzi
24 L. Dickmann
25 Everton Luiz
27 Felipe
32 V. Savić
33 F. Costa
37 A. Petagna
77 F. Viviani

Coach: L. Semplici

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Federico La Penna · 34 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.