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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Leverkusen

S U S T S

3–1

Full-time

Hertha

U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

38%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 60%

63%

56%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

56% Possession 44%

15 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 10. · Hertha 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	M'gladbach	17	10	3	4	+18	33
3	Bayern Munich	16	10	3	3	+15	33
4	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+13	28
5	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	3	5	+14	27
6	Wolfsburg	16	7	4	5	+4	25
7	Hoffenheim	16	6	6	4	+9	24
8	Hertha	16	6	6	4	+1	24
9	Werder Bremen	16	6	4	6	+0	22
10	Leverkusen	16	6	3	7	-5	21
11	Mainz	16	5	5	6	-5	20
12	Freiburg	16	4	6	6	-5	18
13	Augsburg	16	3	6	7	-3	15
14	Schalke 04	16	4	3	9	-6	15
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	4	3	9	-15	15
16	Stuttgart	16	4	2	10	-21	14
17	Hannover	16	2	5	9	-17	11
18	Nurnberg	16	2	5	9	-23	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	M'gladbach	8	8	0	0	+20	24
3	RB Leipzig	8	6	2	0	+17	20
4	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Hertha	8	4	3	1	+3	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+11	13
7	Freiburg	9	3	4	2	+2	13
8	Mainz	9	3	4	2	+1	13
9	Hoffenheim	8	3	3	2	+5	12
10	Werder Bremen	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Wolfsburg	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	4	0	5	-1	12
13	Leverkusen	7	3	1	3	-3	10
14	Stuttgart	7	3	1	3	-7	10
15	Nurnberg	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Schalke 04	8	3	0	5	-2	9
17	Augsburg	7	1	4	2	+0	7
18	Hannover	7	2	1	4	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	0	2	+10	18
2	Dortmund	8	5	2	1	+8	17
3	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+3	14
4	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Hoffenheim	8	3	3	2	+4	12
6	Leverkusen	9	3	2	4	-2	11
7	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-2	9
9	Hertha	8	2	3	3	-2	9
10	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-3	8
11	RB Leipzig	8	2	2	4	-4	8
12	Mainz	7	2	1	4	-6	7
13	Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	-4	6
14	Freiburg	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Hannover	9	0	4	5	-11	4
16	Stuttgart	9	1	1	7	-14	4
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	0	3	4	-14	3
18	Nurnberg	8	0	2	6	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.