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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Brighton

T S U T T

1–1

Full-time

Burnley

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

14 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 15. · Burnley 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+11	10
3	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Everton	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	West Ham	4	2	1	1	-1	7
8	Man United	4	1	2	1	+3	5
9	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Sheffield United	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	-3	5
12	Burnley	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Newcastle	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	Wolves	4	0	3	1	-1	3
18	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
19	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-4	3
20	Watford	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Man City	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Man United	2	1	0	1	+3	3
8	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
14	Chelsea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Watford	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Brighton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Tottenham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Man United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Wolves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.