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2. Bundesliga

Referee: R Kampka

Hertha

U S S T U

0–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 37%

43%

30%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 55%

47%

63%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,96 xG 0,30

59% Possession 41%

23 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hertha 6. · Holstein Kiel 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	30	18	7	5	+19	+14.8	61
2	Paderborn	30	17	7	6	+17	+15.4	58
3	Elversberg	30	16	7	7	+20	+7.2	55
4	Hannover	30	15	9	6	+14	+12.4	54
5	Darmstadt	30	13	11	6	+15	+2.7	50
6	Hertha	30	13	9	8	+9	-3.8	48
7	Kaiserslautern	31	14	4	13	+3	-1.1	46
8	Karlsruhe	30	11	7	12	-9	-20.4	40
9	Nurnberg	30	10	8	12	-2	+0.3	38
10	Bochum	30	9	9	12	+0	+4.2	36
11	Dresden	31	9	8	14	+0	+1.0	35
12	Holstein Kiel	30	9	8	13	-4	-10.0	35
13	Braunschweig	31	9	7	15	-16	-2.3	34
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	31	10	4	17	-18	-5.6	34
15	Magdeburg	30	10	3	17	-7	+7.6	33
16	Greuther Furth	30	9	6	15	-20	-10.7	33
17	Bielefeld	30	8	8	14	-2	+2.4	32
18	Preußen Münster	30	6	10	14	-19	-14.2	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	15	11	3	1	+13	+8.6	36
2	Darmstadt	15	10	4	1	+17	+8.5	34
3	Paderborn	15	10	2	3	+9	+11.5	32
4	Kaiserslautern	16	10	1	5	+14	+4.7	31
5	Elversberg	15	9	4	2	+14	+5.7	31
6	Karlsruhe	14	8	3	3	+7	-5.3	27
7	Bochum	15	7	4	4	+8	+10.2	25
8	Nurnberg	15	7	4	4	+6	+2.9	25
9	Hannover	15	7	4	4	+4	+7.9	25
10	Bielefeld	15	6	4	5	+8	+12.4	22
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.3	21
12	Hertha	15	5	5	5	-2	-1.0	20
13	Braunschweig	16	5	5	6	-7	+3.4	20
14	Holstein Kiel	15	5	4	6	+3	+0.1	19
15	Greuther Furth	15	5	4	6	-8	-4.1	19
16	Dresden	15	5	3	7	+6	+7.8	18
17	Preußen Münster	15	3	7	5	-3	-3.2	16
18	Magdeburg	15	4	2	9	-5	+7.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	15	8	5	2	+10	+4.5	29
2	Hertha	15	8	4	3	+11	-2.8	28
3	Paderborn	15	7	5	3	+8	+3.9	26
4	Schalke 04	15	7	4	4	+6	+6.2	25
5	Elversberg	15	7	3	5	+6	+1.5	24
6	Magdeburg	15	6	1	8	-2	+0.1	19
7	Dresden	16	4	5	7	-6	-6.8	17
8	Darmstadt	15	3	7	5	-2	-5.8	16
9	Holstein Kiel	15	4	4	7	-7	-10.0	16
10	Kaiserslautern	15	4	3	8	-11	-5.8	15
11	Braunschweig	15	4	2	9	-9	-5.6	14
12	Greuther Furth	15	4	2	9	-12	-6.6	14
13	Nurnberg	15	3	4	8	-8	-2.7	13
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	1	10	-12	-4.3	13
15	Karlsruhe	16	3	4	9	-16	-15.1	13
16	Preußen Münster	15	3	3	9	-16	-11.0	12
17	Bochum	15	2	5	8	-8	-6.0	11
18	Bielefeld	15	2	4	9	-10	-10.0	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.