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Serie B

Referee: M Gualtieri

Sudtirol

S U S U S

1–0

Full-time

Parma

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sudtirol Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Serie B · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 44%

44%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%

4 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sudtirol 9. · Parma 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ternana	9	6	1	2	+5	19
2	Reggina	9	6	0	3	+12	18
3	Frosinone	9	6	0	3	+8	18
4	Bari	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Genoa	9	5	3	1	+5	18
6	Parma	9	4	4	1	+5	16
7	Brescia	9	5	1	3	-1	16
8	Cagliari	9	4	2	3	+0	14
9	Sudtirol	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Modena	9	4	0	5	+3	12
11	Ascoli	9	3	3	3	+0	12
12	Cosenza	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Spal	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	Cittadella	9	2	4	3	-4	10
15	Benevento	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-4	8
17	Palermo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Pisa	9	1	4	4	-2	7
19	Como	9	1	3	5	-10	6
20	Perugia	9	1	1	7	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reggina	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Frosinone	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Ternana	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Brescia	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Parma	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Modena	5	3	0	2	+5	9
7	Cagliari	5	3	0	2	-1	9
8	Cittadella	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	Palermo	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Cosenza	4	2	0	2	+1	6
11	Genoa	4	1	3	0	+1	6
12	Spal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Bari	4	1	2	1	+2	5
14	Sudtirol	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Como	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Ascoli	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Perugia	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Venezia	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bari	5	4	1	0	+5	13
2	Genoa	5	4	0	1	+4	12
3	Ternana	5	3	0	2	+0	9
4	Sudtirol	5	3	0	2	-2	9
5	Venezia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Ascoli	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Parma	4	1	3	0	+2	6
8	Frosinone	5	2	0	3	+0	6
9	Reggina	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Brescia	5	2	0	3	-5	6
11	Benevento	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Pisa	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Cosenza	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Spal	5	0	4	1	-2	4
16	Modena	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Cittadella	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Palermo	4	0	1	3	-7	1
19	Como	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Perugia	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.