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Championship
Referee: G Ward
Norwich
T S T T T
2–0
Full-time
Birmingham
T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norwich Birmingham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 44%
50%
38%
Points per game
1,6
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 57%
63%
50%
Average goals
4,1
1,9
Scored
2,1
1,0
Conceded
2,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,27 xG 1,14
58% Possession 42%
16 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Norwich 8. · Birmingham 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leicester 8 7 0 1 +9 +6.9 21
2 Ipswich 8 7 0 1 +7 +5.5 21
3 Preston 8 6 2 0 +7 +0.6 20
4 Sunderland 9 5 1 3 +10 +4.5 16
5 Hull 8 4 3 1 +5 -2.1 15
6 Leeds 9 3 4 2 +4 +4.1 13
7 Cardiff 8 4 1 3 +2 +2.0 13
8 Norwich 8 4 1 3 +1 +1.8 13
9 Southampton 9 4 1 4 -5 -1.5 13
10 Bristol City 8 3 3 2 +2 +2.4 12
11 Birmingham 8 3 3 2 +1 +4.5 12
12 Millwall 8 3 2 3 -1 -5.0 11
13 Plymouth 8 3 1 4 +3 -1.9 10
14 West Brom 8 2 4 2 +1 -3.6 10
15 Blackburn 8 3 1 4 -4 -0.3 10
16 Watford 8 2 3 3 +1 +0.2 9
17 Huddersfield 8 2 3 3 -4 -4.5 9
18 Coventry 8 1 5 2 +1 +2.1 8
19 QPR 8 2 2 4 -5 -5.4 8
20 Stoke 8 2 1 5 -4 +2.2 7
21 Swansea 8 1 3 4 -2 -0.1 6
22 Middlesbrough 8 1 2 5 -8 +3.8 5
23 Rotherham 8 1 2 5 -9 -9.9 5
24 Sheffield Weds 9 0 2 7 -12 -6.4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Norwich Birmingham
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Gabriel Sara
D. Giannoulis
55′
Hwang Ui-Jo 🔁
↦ P. Płacheta
57′
O. Hernández 🔁
↦ C. Fassnacht
57′
59′
🔁 S. Dembélé
↦ O. Burke
59′
🔁 J. Bacuna
↦ I. Šunjić
2–0 J. Rowe
Hwang Ui-Jo
60′
Gabriel Sara 🟨
65′
A. Forshaw 🔁
↦ A. Idah
67′
76′
🔁 L. Jutkiewicz
↦ S. Hogan
79′
🔁 J. James
↦ K. Bielik
79′
🔁 G. Gardner
↦ K. Miyoshi
83′
🟨 Kevin Long
D. Batth 🔁
↦ Gabriel Sara
92′
Borja Sainz 🔁
↦ J. Rowe
92′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Norwich

4-2-3-1
28 A. Gunn G
3 J. Stacey D
24 S. Duffy D
6 B. Gibson D
30 D. Giannoulis D
17 Gabriel Sara M
23 K. McLean M
16 C. Fassnacht M
27 J. Rowe M
20 P. Płacheta M
11 A. Idah F
Bench (9)
31 Hwang Ui-Jo
25 O. Hernández
29 A. Forshaw
21 D. Batth
7 Borja Sainz
8 L. Gibbs
35 K. Fisher
12 G. Long
15 S. McCallum

Coach: D. Wagner

Birmingham

4-2-3-1
21 J. Ruddy G
12 C. Drameh D
5 D. Sanderson D
26 K. Long D
23 M. Emmanuel D
34 I. Šunjić M
6 K. Bielik M
45 O. Burke M
11 K. Miyoshi M
28 J. Stansfield M
9 S. Hogan F
Bench (9)
17 S. Dembélé
7 J. Bacuna
10 L. Jutkiewicz
19 J. James
20 G. Gardner
27 B. Khela
1 N. Etheridge
44 E. Aiwu
4 M. Roberts

Coach: J. Eustace

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,90
U
3,61
B
4,01
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,90
U2,5 ✓
1,90
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

G Ward · 178 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.