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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Heidenheim

T T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Union Berlin

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

5,0

3,2

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

4,4

3,6

Scored

1,8

Conceded

2,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,77 xG 2,15

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 4

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 13. · Union Berlin 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+6	+4.5	14
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+14	+11.5	13
3	Leverkusen	5	4	1	0	+11	+6.9	13
4	Stuttgart	5	4	0	1	+10	+5.3	12
5	RB Leipzig	5	4	0	1	+10	+1.1	12
6	Hoffenheim	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.5	12
7	Wolfsburg	5	3	0	2	+1	+0.2	9
8	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	4	0	+1	-0.1	7
9	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	-5	+0.4	7
10	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.4	6
11	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.0	6
12	Augsburg	5	1	2	2	-4	+0.0	5
13	Heidenheim	5	1	1	3	-4	-6.5	4
14	Bochum	5	0	3	2	-12	-6.9	3
15	M'gladbach	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.4	2
16	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.7	1
17	Darmstadt	5	0	1	4	-10	-7.9	1
18	Mainz	5	0	1	4	-10	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+12	+5.3	9
2	Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+8	+5.5	9
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+9	+7.2	7
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.2	7
5	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.0	6
6	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
7	Werder Bremen	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.6	6
8	Augsburg	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.7	5
9	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.5	5
10	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.2	3
11	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.3	3
12	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
13	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
14	Bochum	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
15	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
16	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
17	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.8	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
3	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.3	6
4	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.1	6
5	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.4	4
6	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-4	+0.4	4
7	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.3	3
8	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.0	3
9	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
10	M'gladbach	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
11	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
12	FC Koln	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
13	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.3	1
14	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-12	-7.9	1
15	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.