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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Brighton

S S U U U

1–4

Full-time

Man City

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 57%

50%

63%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

25%

38%

Both score Ø 26%

38%

13%

Average goals

1,6

2,4

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,6

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

48% Possession 52%

10 Shots 23

5 Shots on target 14

1 Blocked shots 6

8 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 4. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+20	22
2	Liverpool	8	5	3	0	+16	18
3	Man City	8	5	2	1	+13	17
4	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
5	Tottenham	8	5	0	3	-3	15
6	Man United	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Arsenal	9	4	2	3	-3	14
10	Wolves	9	4	1	4	+0	13
11	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	12
12	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Watford	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Crystal Palace	9	1	6	2	-3	9
16	Southampton	9	1	5	3	-4	8
17	Leeds	9	1	4	4	-8	7
18	Burnley	9	0	4	5	-8	4
19	Newcastle	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Norwich	9	0	2	7	-21	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+14	12
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+12	10
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Everton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
5	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
6	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Man United	4	2	1	1	+6	7
8	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Crystal Palace	5	1	4	0	+3	7
10	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+2	7
11	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Southampton	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Watford	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Wolves	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Man City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Man United	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Watford	5	2	0	3	+1	6
10	Tottenham	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Arsenal	4	1	1	2	-6	4
14	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-6	3
15	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Leeds	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.