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League Cup

Referee: G Scott

Exeter City

S T S U S

2–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Exeter City Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%

8 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 9

3 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Exeter City 5. · Middlesbrough 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Exeter City	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
11	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
13	Mansfield Town	3	1	2	0	+2	5
14	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
15	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Lincoln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
20	Sutton Utd	3	1	1	1	+0	4
21	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	-1	4
22	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+4	3
23	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
24	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
28	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Peterborough	3	0	3	0	+0	3
34	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
42	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
43	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Bradford	3	0	2	1	-2	2
47	Salford City	3	0	2	1	-4	2
48	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
62	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
63	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
64	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Exeter City	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Mansfield Town	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
12	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
22	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
23	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
25	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
26	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Salford City	2	0	1	1	-4	1
39	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Bradford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Sutton Utd	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
20	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
23	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.