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Super League
Referee: S Horisberger
Lugano
S T T S S
0–2
Full-time
Basel
U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
4,3
Scored
1,0
2,3
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
This season — Super League · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 46%
50%
42%
Points per game
1,6
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
42%
58%
Both score Ø 59%
46%
71%
Average goals
2,6
3,5
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%
11 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 0
4 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 4. · Basel 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Zurich 25 18 5 2 +29 59
2 Young Boys 25 12 8 5 +25 44
3 Basel 24 10 11 3 +21 41
4 Lugano 24 12 3 9 -1 39
5 Servette 24 9 5 10 -6 32
6 St. Gallen 24 8 6 10 -5 30
7 Sion 24 8 5 11 -11 29
8 Grasshoppers 24 6 9 9 +1 27
9 Luzern 25 3 10 12 -20 19
10 Lausanne 25 2 6 17 -33 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lugano Basel
9′
F. Chalov 0–1
Kreshnik Hajrizi 🟨
12′
Sandi Lovrić 🟨
16′
34′
🟨 Valentin Stocker
40′
🟨 Sergio López
Half-time 0–1
R. Ziegler 🔁
↦ M. Valenzuela
46′
M. Bottani 🔁
↦ O. Custodio
46′
46′
🔁 Á. Szalai
↦ D. Ndoye
53′
🟨 Fedor Chalov
58′
🔁 D. Males
↦ V. Stocker
66′
🔁 M. Palacios
↦ F. Chalov
M. Marić 🔁
↦ K. Hajrizi
71′
M. Amoura 🔁
↦ K. Rüegg
71′
Fabio Daprelà 🟨
72′
76′
🟨 Taulant Xhaka
H. Mahmoud 🔁
↦ M. Haile-Selassie
79′
83′
🔁 S.Esposito
↦ T. Xhaka
93′
D. Males 0–2
S.Esposito
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Lugano

4-3-3
26 A. Saipi G
30 F. Daprelà D
16 N. Lavanchy F
4 K. Hajrizi D
17 M. Valenzuela D
14 J. Sabbatini M
20 O. Custodio M
27 K. Rüegg D
24 S. Lovrić M
18 M. Haile-Selassie F
19 Ž. Celar F
Bench (9)
3 R. Ziegler
10 M. Bottani
5 M. Marić
6 M. Amoura
29 H. Mahmoud
8 A. Durrer
31 I. Aliseda
7 M. Facchinetti
58 S. Osigwe

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Basel

4-2-3-1
1 H. Lindner G
22 Sergio López D
3 N. Katterbach D
6 N. Djiga D
14 V. Stocker M
7 P. Kasami M
34 T. Xhaka M
23 W. Burger D
99 F. Chalov F
17 L. Millar M
27 D. Ndoye M
Bench (8)
11 Á. Szalai
19 D. Males
35 M. Palacios
9 S.Esposito
96 Joelson Fernandes
15 S. Pavlović
46 F. Gebhardt
30 Tomás Tavares

Coach: Guillermo Abascal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Horisberger · 84 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.