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Bundesliga
Referee: M Fritz
Hertha
T U U S T
3–2
Full-time
Dortmund
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 50%
31%
69%
Points per game
1,1
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
63%
81%
Both score Ø 69%
56%
81%
Average goals
3,1
3,9
Scored
1,1
2,4
Conceded
2,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%
13 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
4 Free kicks against 19
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hertha 15. · Dortmund 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 17 14 1 2 +40 43
2 Dortmund 16 11 1 4 +16 34
3 Leverkusen 16 8 4 4 +13 28
4 Hoffenheim 17 8 4 5 +9 28
5 Ein Frankfurt 17 7 6 4 +3 27
6 Union Berlin 17 7 6 4 +2 27
7 Freiburg 16 7 5 4 +11 26
8 Mainz 17 7 3 7 +8 24
9 RB Leipzig 17 6 4 7 +8 22
10 FC Koln 16 5 7 4 -1 22
11 Bochum 17 6 2 9 -10 20
12 Wolfsburg 17 6 2 9 -12 20
13 M'gladbach 17 5 4 8 -10 19
14 Augsburg 17 4 6 7 -9 18
15 Hertha 16 5 3 8 -16 18
16 Stuttgart 16 4 5 7 -8 17
17 Bielefeld 17 3 7 7 -8 16
18 Greuther Furth 17 1 2 14 -36 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hertha Dortmund
Myziane Maolida ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
18′
31′
J. Brandt 0–1
Half-time 1–1
1–1 I. Belfodil
V. Darida
51′
D. Zeefuik 🔁
↦ P. Pekarík
55′
2–1 M. Richter
M. Maolida
57′
58′
🔁 T. Hazard
↦ M. Reus
3–1 M. Richter
69′
L. Tousart 🔁
↦ V. Darida
72′
L. Gechter 🔁
↦ M. Richter
72′
72′
🔁 D. Zagadou
↦ A. Witsel
72′
🔁 Raphaël Guerreiro
↦ N. Schulz
72′
🔁 M. Wolf
↦ T. Meunier
81′
🔁 S. Tigges
↦ J. Brandt
83′
S. Tigges 3–2
Raphaël Guerreiro
M. Plattenhardt 🔁
↦ I. Belfodil
87′
D. Selke 🔁
↦ J. Ekkelenkamp
87′
95′
🟨 Marin Pongračić
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Hertha

4-2-2-2
1 A. Schwolow G
2 P. Pekarík D
5 N. Stark D
25 J. Torunarigha D
17 M. Mittelstädt D
6 V. Darida M
18 S. Ascacíbar M
10 J. Ekkelenkamp M
14 I. Belfodil F
23 M. Richter M
11 M. Maolida F
Bench (9)
42 D. Zeefuik
29 L. Tousart
44 L. Gechter
21 M. Plattenhardt
7 D. Selke
9 K. Piątek
30 D. Jastrzembski
32 O. Christensen
31 M. Dárdai

Coach: T. Korkut

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
35 M. Hitz G
24 T. Meunier D
14 N. Schulz D
34 M. Pongracic D
28 A. Witsel D
23 E. Can M
19 J. Brandt M
8 M. Dahoud M
11 M. Reus M
21 D. Malen M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (9)
10 T. Hazard
5 D. Zagadou
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
39 M. Wolf
27 S. Tigges
40 S. Drljača
20 Reinier
30 F. Passlack
36 A. Knauff

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,21
U
4,39
B
1,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,59
U2,5
2,38
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Fritz · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.