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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

AZ Alkmaar

T U S S S

4–1

Full-time

Willem II

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,2

3,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-2,7

This season — Eredivisie · 14/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

50%

31%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

71%

69%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

56%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

72% Possession 28%

13 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 8. · Willem II 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	1	3	+17	37
2	Ajax	16	11	3	2	+45	36
3	Feyenoord	16	11	3	2	+24	36
4	Utrecht	16	8	4	4	+11	28
5	Twente	16	8	4	4	+4	28
6	Cambuur	16	9	0	7	-6	27
7	Vitesse	15	8	2	5	-2	26
8	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	1	6	+6	22
9	Heerenveen	15	6	4	5	-1	22
10	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	3	7	-6	21
11	Groningen	16	4	7	5	-4	19
12	Nijmegen	16	5	4	7	-5	19
13	Willem II	16	5	3	8	-14	18
14	Waalwijk	16	3	6	7	-8	15
15	Heracles	16	4	2	10	-7	14
16	For Sittard	17	3	4	10	-22	13
17	Sparta Rotterdam	17	2	6	9	-12	12
18	Zwolle	16	1	3	12	-20	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	8	7	1	0	+17	22
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+13	21
3	Utrecht	8	6	2	0	+16	20
4	Ajax	9	6	1	2	+30	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Twente	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Heracles	8	4	1	3	+1	13
8	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	0	4	+2	12
9	Cambuur	8	4	0	4	-2	12
10	Heerenveen	8	3	2	3	-1	11
11	Waalwijk	8	3	1	4	-5	10
12	Willem II	8	3	1	4	-7	10
13	Groningen	8	1	6	1	+1	9
14	Nijmegen	8	2	2	4	-1	8
15	For Sittard	8	2	2	4	-11	8
16	Sparta Rotterdam	9	1	4	4	-5	7
17	Vitesse	6	2	1	3	-5	7
18	Zwolle	8	1	2	5	-5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	9	6	1	2	+3	19
2	Ajax	7	5	2	0	+15	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	8	5	1	2	+4	16
4	Cambuur	8	5	0	3	-4	15
5	Feyenoord	8	4	2	2	+7	14
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+0	13
7	Heerenveen	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	-4	11
9	Groningen	8	3	1	4	-5	10
10	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	3	3	-8	9
11	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Willem II	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	AZ Alkmaar	7	2	0	5	-4	6
14	Waalwijk	8	0	5	3	-3	5
15	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	For Sittard	9	1	2	6	-11	5
17	Heracles	8	0	1	7	-8	1
18	Zwolle	8	0	1	7	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.