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2. Bundesliga

Ingolstadt

T U T U T

3–0

Full-time

Dresden

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ingolstadt Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 24%

41%

Points per game

0,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

65%

59%

Both score Ø 44%

53%

35%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

0,6

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

13 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

6 Corners 1

21 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ingolstadt 18. · Dresden 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	18	11	3	4	+14	36
2	Darmstadt	17	10	2	5	+19	32
3	Hamburg	17	7	8	2	+13	29
4	Schalke 04	17	9	2	6	+11	29
5	Regensburg	17	8	4	5	+9	28
6	Paderborn	17	7	6	4	+11	27
7	Nurnberg	17	7	6	4	+4	27
8	Heidenheim	17	8	3	6	-2	27
9	Werder Bremen	17	7	5	5	+4	26
10	Karlsruhe	17	6	6	5	+3	24
11	Dresden	17	7	1	9	-2	22
12	Holstein Kiel	18	5	6	7	-7	21
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	18	5	5	8	-2	20
14	Hannover	17	5	5	7	-10	20
15	Hansa Rostock	17	5	4	8	-10	19
16	Sandhausen	18	4	5	9	-16	17
17	Erzgebirge Aue	17	3	5	9	-13	14
18	Ingolstadt	17	1	4	12	-26	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	8	8	0	0	+19	24
2	Darmstadt	8	6	0	2	+15	18
3	Heidenheim	9	5	3	1	+5	18
4	Hamburg	9	4	5	0	+10	17
5	Regensburg	9	5	2	2	+9	17
6	Nurnberg	9	5	2	2	+7	17
7	Schalke 04	9	5	1	3	+9	16
8	Dresden	8	5	0	3	+6	15
9	Karlsruhe	9	4	3	2	+5	15
10	Holstein Kiel	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	Werder Bremen	8	3	3	2	+5	12
12	Hannover	8	3	2	3	-2	11
13	Paderborn	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	Hansa Rostock	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Erzgebirge Aue	9	2	2	5	-5	8
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	1	4	4	-2	7
17	Ingolstadt	8	0	3	5	-9	3
18	Sandhausen	8	0	3	5	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	8	5	3	0	+12	18
2	Darmstadt	9	4	2	3	+4	14
3	Werder Bremen	9	4	2	3	-1	14
4	Sandhausen	10	4	2	4	-4	14
5	Schalke 04	8	4	1	3	+2	13
6	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	4	1	4	+0	13
7	Hamburg	8	3	3	2	+3	12
8	St Pauli	10	3	3	4	-5	12
9	Regensburg	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Hansa Rostock	9	3	2	4	-5	11
11	Nurnberg	8	2	4	2	-3	10
12	Karlsruhe	8	2	3	3	-2	9
13	Heidenheim	8	3	0	5	-7	9
14	Hannover	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	Holstein Kiel	8	1	4	3	-4	7
16	Dresden	9	2	1	6	-8	7
17	Erzgebirge Aue	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Ingolstadt	9	1	1	7	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.