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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

RB Leipzig

T T T S S

3–2

Full-time

Augsburg

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

52%

30%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

59%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,81 xG 0,67

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

5 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Augsburg 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	17	7	3	+48	+7.8	58
2	Dortmund	27	18	2	7	+23	+9.4	56
3	Union Berlin	27	15	6	6	+12	-3.8	51
4	RB Leipzig	27	14	6	7	+17	+6.5	48
5	Freiburg	27	13	8	6	+3	-5.1	47
6	Leverkusen	27	13	4	10	+10	+9.6	43
7	Ein Frankfurt	27	11	8	8	+8	-1.2	41
8	Mainz	27	11	8	8	+7	+2.4	41
9	Wolfsburg	27	10	9	8	+10	+6.7	39
10	M'gladbach	27	9	8	10	-2	-1.0	35
11	Werder Bremen	27	9	5	13	-10	-6.0	32
12	FC Koln	27	7	10	10	-9	-0.1	31
13	Augsburg	27	8	5	14	-15	-7.0	29
14	Hoffenheim	27	8	4	15	-9	-1.9	28
15	Bochum	27	8	2	17	-30	-6.2	26
16	Schalke 04	28	5	9	14	-26	-2.6	24
17	Stuttgart	27	5	8	14	-15	-0.3	23
18	Hertha	28	5	7	16	-22	-7.2	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	11	1	1	+25	+7.0	34
2	Bayern Munich	13	9	4	0	+30	+8.6	31
3	Union Berlin	13	9	4	0	+16	+0.0	31
4	RB Leipzig	13	9	2	2	+15	-1.9	29
5	Freiburg	14	8	4	2	+10	-2.4	28
6	M'gladbach	14	8	3	3	+12	+3.8	27
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+13	+4.4	24
8	Leverkusen	14	7	2	5	+11	+5.7	23
9	Mainz	14	5	6	3	+8	+2.0	21
10	FC Koln	13	5	4	4	+7	+3.0	19
11	Bochum	13	6	1	6	-4	+0.7	19
12	Wolfsburg	13	4	6	3	+6	+5.8	18
13	Augsburg	14	5	3	6	-6	-2.2	18
14	Hertha	14	4	5	5	-2	-1.6	17
15	Hoffenheim	14	5	2	7	-3	+2.6	17
16	Werder Bremen	14	5	1	8	+0	+0.5	16
17	Schalke 04	15	4	4	7	-14	-2.2	16
18	Stuttgart	13	4	3	6	+0	+1.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	8	3	3	+18	-0.8	27
2	Dortmund	14	7	1	6	-2	+2.3	22
3	Wolfsburg	14	6	3	5	+4	+0.9	21
4	Leverkusen	13	6	2	5	-1	+3.9	20
5	Mainz	13	6	2	5	-1	+0.4	20
6	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
7	RB Leipzig	14	5	4	5	+2	+8.4	19
8	Freiburg	13	5	4	4	-7	-2.7	19
9	Ein Frankfurt	14	4	5	5	-5	-5.6	17
10	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-10	-6.6	16
11	FC Koln	14	2	6	6	-16	-3.0	12
12	Hoffenheim	13	3	2	8	-6	-4.5	11
13	Augsburg	13	3	2	8	-9	-4.8	11
14	Schalke 04	13	1	5	7	-12	-0.4	8
15	M'gladbach	13	1	5	7	-14	-4.8	8
16	Stuttgart	14	1	5	8	-15	-1.5	8
17	Bochum	14	2	1	11	-26	-7.0	7
18	Hertha	14	1	2	11	-20	-5.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.