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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

Union Berlin

S S U S U

2–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,0

5,0

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

1,0

4,7

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

0,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,21 xG 0,39

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 9. · Hoffenheim 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.0	9
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
3	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.3	7
4	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
5	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+3	+5.1	6
6	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+1	+3.5	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.8	6
8	Werder Bremen	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.1	5
9	Union Berlin	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
10	Mainz	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.2	5
11	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
12	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.0	4
13	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.2	3
14	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
15	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.5	3
16	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
17	St Pauli	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.8	0
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
2	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+4.1	6
3	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.3	4
4	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
5	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
6	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
7	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
8	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
9	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
10	Stuttgart	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
11	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
13	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
14	Wolfsburg	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
15	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
16	St Pauli	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.4	6
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.9	6
3	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
4	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
5	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
6	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
7	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
8	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
11	Union Berlin	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
12	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
13	Holstein Kiel	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
14	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.8	0
15	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
17	St Pauli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0
18	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.