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La Liga

Referee: Gil Manzano

Valencia

T U T T T

1–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

4,7

Scored

0,7

2,7

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,90 xG 0,60

58% Possession 42%

22 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

14 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Valencia 20. · Villarreal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+10	+7.4	12
2	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+4	+4.2	8
3	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.4	7
4	Celta	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.3	6
5	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.5	5
6	Leganes	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.0	5
7	Girona	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.9	4
8	Alaves	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
9	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.6	4
10	Ath Bilbao	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.5	4
11	Espanol	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.9	4
12	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.5	4
13	Valladolid	4	1	1	2	-9	-4.2	4
14	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.1	3
15	Getafe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.7	2
16	Betis	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
17	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.2	2
18	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
19	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.6	2
20	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
2	Celta	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
3	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.4	4
4	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
5	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Valladolid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
7	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
8	Girona	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.2	3
9	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
10	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.1	3
12	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.6	2
13	Mallorca	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
14	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
15	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
16	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
17	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
18	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
19	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
20	Sociedad	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.2	6
2	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
3	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
4	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
6	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
7	Real Madrid	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.8	2
8	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
9	Leganes	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
10	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
12	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
13	Girona	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
14	Celta	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
16	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
17	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
18	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
19	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.2	0
20	Valladolid	2	0	0	2	-10	-5.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.