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Championship
Referee: R Madley
Bristol City
T T S U U
1–1
Full-time
Cardiff
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Cardiff
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
1,5
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 19%
25%
13%
Points per game
1,3
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
50%
25%
Both score Ø 44%
63%
25%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,1
0,4
Conceded
1,6
2,1
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 1,77
60% Possession 40%
16 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 7
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bristol City 17. · Cardiff 24.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sheffield United 9 6 3 0 +9 +4.8 21
2 Sunderland 9 6 1 2 +10 +2.9 19
3 Burnley 9 5 3 1 +10 +1.5 18
4 West Brom 9 5 2 2 +6 +5.5 17
5 Leeds 9 4 4 1 +8 +8.8 16
6 Watford 9 5 1 3 +0 -4.1 16
7 Norwich 9 4 3 2 +6 +5.7 15
8 Blackburn 9 4 3 2 +4 +0.1 15
9 Middlesbrough 9 4 2 3 +3 +8.7 14
10 Oxford 9 3 3 3 +2 -2.6 12
11 Swansea 9 3 3 3 +2 -3.2 12
12 Derby 9 4 0 5 +0 -1.3 12
13 Hull 9 3 3 3 -1 -2.6 12
14 Plymouth 9 3 2 4 -3 -8.6 11
15 Sheffield Weds 9 3 2 4 -4 -1.6 11
16 Stoke 9 3 1 5 -2 -3.0 10
17 Bristol City 8 2 4 2 -4 +1.2 10
18 Millwall 9 2 3 4 +1 +6.3 9
19 Preston 9 2 3 4 -5 -5.0 9
20 Coventry 9 2 2 5 -3 +2.4 8
21 Luton 9 2 2 5 -7 +0.9 8
22 QPR 9 1 4 4 -7 -2.2 7
23 Portsmouth 9 0 5 4 -11 -8.1 5
24 Cardiff 8 1 1 6 -14 -6.5 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bristol City Cardiff
R. McCrorie 🔁
↦ C. Pring
18′
Half-time 0–0
Ross McCrorie 🟨
49′
54′
O. Tanner 0–1
R. Colwill
M. Bird 🔁
↦ Y. Hirakawa
55′
F. Mayulu 🔁
↦ S. Armstrong
55′
M. Sykes 🔁
↦ A. Mehmeti
55′
65′
🟨 Joe Ralls
66′
🔁 C. O'Dowda
↦ C. Robinson
66′
🔁 J. Daland
↦ A. El Ghazi
1–1 L. McNally
J. Williams
73′
77′
🔁 A. Rinomhota
↦ J. Ralls
77′
🔁 W. Kanga
↦ O. Tanner
G. Earthy 🔁
↦ S. Twine
84′
84′
🔁 M. Siopis
↦ A. Robertson
Mark Sykes 🟨
92′
94′
🔁 Y. Meïté
↦ D. Goutas
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Bristol City

4-2-3-1
1 M. O’Leary G
19 G. Tanner D
14 Z. Vyner D
15 L. McNally D
3 C. Pring D
8 J. Williams M
12 J. Knight M
7 Y. Hirakawa M
10 S. Twine M
11 A. Mehmeti M
30 S. Armstrong F
Bench (9)
2 R. McCrorie
6 M. Bird
9 F. Mayulu
17 M. Sykes
40 G. Earthy
21 N. Wells
29 M. McGuane
4 K. Naismith
23 S. Bajić

Coach: L. Manning

Cardiff

4-2-3-1
21 J. Alnwick G
38 P. Ng D
4 D. Goutas D
12 C. Chambers D
23 J. Bagan D
18 A. Robertson M
8 J. Ralls M
32 O. Tanner M
27 R. Colwill M
20 A. El Ghazi M
47 C. Robinson F
Bench (9)
11 C. O'Dowda
5 J. Daland
35 A. Rinomhota
15 W. Kanga
3 M. Siopis
19 Y. Meïté
1 E. Horvath
14 D. Turnbull
16 C. Willock

Coach: O. Riza

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,76
U ✓
3,74
B
4,52
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,97
U2,5 ✓
1,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Madley · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.