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Allsvenskan

Referee: A Aganovic

Malmo FF

U S T S S

1–1

Full-time

Varnamo

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malmo FF Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 46%

68%

24%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

64%

44%

Both score Ø 44%

40%

48%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

2,4

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,63 xG 1,23

64% Possession 36%

11 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Malmo FF 1. · Varnamo 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	25	17	5	3	+40	+22.6	56
2	Hammarby	26	14	5	7	+19	+5.9	47
3	Djurgarden	26	14	5	7	+10	+1.3	47
4	AIK	26	14	3	9	+0	+2.6	45
5	Mjallby	26	12	6	8	+5	+1.2	42
6	Elfsborg	25	12	5	8	+13	+6.4	41
7	GAIS	26	12	4	10	+0	-4.3	40
8	Hacken	26	11	6	9	+4	-5.2	39
9	Sirius	25	11	4	10	+4	+0.4	37
10	Brommapojkarna	26	8	9	9	-4	-1.2	33
11	Goteborg	25	6	9	10	-9	-6.1	27
12	Norrkoping	25	7	6	12	-19	-5.6	27
13	Varnamo	25	6	7	12	-10	-6.4	25
14	Halmstad	26	7	3	16	-18	-6.9	24
15	Kalmar	26	6	5	15	-19	-7.7	23
16	Vasteras SK	26	5	4	17	-16	+3.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	12	11	0	1	+29	+9.9	33
2	Mjallby	13	8	4	1	+11	+2.9	28
3	Elfsborg	13	8	3	2	+17	+4.9	27
4	Hammarby	13	8	3	2	+14	+4.5	27
5	GAIS	13	8	3	2	+10	+0.3	27
6	AIK	13	8	1	4	+9	+4.6	25
7	Djurgarden	13	6	4	3	+3	-1.0	22
8	Hacken	13	6	3	4	+8	-0.6	21
9	Sirius	12	5	2	5	+5	+4.3	17
10	Halmstad	13	5	2	6	+2	-0.0	17
11	Brommapojkarna	13	4	5	4	-5	-0.1	17
12	Norrkoping	12	5	1	6	-7	-1.9	16
13	Goteborg	13	3	5	5	-5	-4.3	14
14	Vasteras SK	13	3	2	8	-7	+4.0	11
15	Kalmar	13	3	2	8	-8	-2.4	11
16	Varnamo	13	2	3	8	-12	-1.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Djurgarden	13	8	1	4	+7	+2.3	25
2	Malmo FF	13	6	5	2	+11	+12.7	23
3	Hammarby	13	6	2	5	+5	+1.3	20
4	Sirius	13	6	2	5	-1	-3.9	20
5	AIK	13	6	2	5	-9	-2.0	20
6	Hacken	13	5	3	5	-4	-4.6	18
7	Varnamo	12	4	4	4	+2	-4.5	16
8	Brommapojkarna	13	4	4	5	+1	-1.1	16
9	Elfsborg	12	4	2	6	-4	+1.4	14
10	Mjallby	13	4	2	7	-6	-1.6	14
11	Goteborg	12	3	4	5	-4	-1.8	13
12	GAIS	13	4	1	8	-10	-4.5	13
13	Kalmar	13	3	3	7	-11	-5.3	12
14	Norrkoping	13	2	5	6	-12	-3.7	11
15	Vasteras SK	13	2	2	9	-9	-1.0	8
16	Halmstad	13	2	1	10	-20	-6.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.