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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Ajaccio

T S U T T

4–2

Full-time

Strasbourg

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 12%

15%

Points per game

0,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 62%

46%

77%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,6

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–2

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 20

0 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 19. · Strasbourg 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+28	35
2	Lens	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Rennes	13	8	3	2	+16	27
4	Lorient	13	8	3	2	+6	27
5	Marseille	13	7	3	3	+11	24
6	Monaco	13	7	3	3	+7	24
7	Lille	13	7	1	5	+3	22
8	Lyon	13	6	2	5	+6	20
9	Clermont	13	5	3	5	-3	18
10	Nice	13	4	4	5	-3	16
11	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	-4	16
12	Troyes	14	3	5	6	-4	14
13	Reims	13	2	7	4	-6	13
14	Auxerre	14	3	4	7	-12	13
15	Montpellier	13	4	0	9	-5	12
16	Nantes	13	2	6	5	-6	12
17	Strasbourg	13	1	7	5	-7	10
18	Brest	13	2	4	7	-12	10
19	Ajaccio	13	2	2	9	-12	8
20	Angers	13	2	2	9	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	7	7	0	0	+11	21
2	Rennes	7	6	0	1	+14	18
3	Lyon	7	5	1	1	+10	16
4	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+7	16
5	Marseille	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Lorient	6	4	1	1	+4	13
7	Toulouse	7	3	3	1	+1	12
8	Lille	6	4	0	2	-1	12
9	Monaco	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Nantes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Montpellier	7	3	0	4	-2	9
12	Auxerre	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Clermont	6	3	0	3	-5	9
14	Troyes	7	1	5	1	-1	8
15	Reims	6	1	3	2	-4	6
16	Nice	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Strasbourg	7	0	4	3	-6	4
18	Angers	7	1	1	5	-8	4
19	Brest	6	0	3	3	-9	3
20	Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+21	19
2	Lorient	7	4	2	1	+2	14
3	Monaco	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Marseille	6	3	2	1	+7	11
5	Nice	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Lille	7	3	1	3	+4	10
7	Lens	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	Clermont	7	2	3	2	+2	9
9	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
10	Reims	7	1	4	2	-2	7
11	Brest	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Ajaccio	7	2	1	4	-3	7
13	Strasbourg	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Troyes	7	2	0	5	-3	6
15	Lyon	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Toulouse	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Angers	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-10	4
19	Montpellier	6	1	0	5	-3	3
20	Nantes	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.