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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Milan

S S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Spezia

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

67%

58%

Both score Ø 59%

75%

42%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,1

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

23 Shots 13

11 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

3 Corners 6

12 Free kicks against 13

6 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 3. · Spezia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	2	0	+22	35
2	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+9	27
3	Milan	12	8	2	2	+12	26
4	Roma	12	8	1	3	+5	25
5	Lazio	12	7	3	2	+16	24
6	Inter	12	8	0	4	+8	24
7	Udinese	13	6	5	2	+8	23
8	Juventus	12	6	4	2	+11	22
9	Salernitana	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	Torino	12	5	2	5	-2	17
11	Sassuolo	13	4	3	6	-4	15
12	Empoli	13	3	5	5	-7	14
13	Bologna	12	3	4	5	-4	13
14	Fiorentina	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Monza	12	3	1	8	-10	10
16	Lecce	13	1	6	6	-6	9
17	Spezia	12	2	3	7	-12	9
18	Cremonese	13	0	6	7	-13	6
19	Sampdoria	12	1	3	8	-15	6
20	Verona	12	1	2	9	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Inter	6	5	0	1	+10	15
3	Milan	6	5	0	1	+9	15
4	Juventus	6	4	2	0	+12	14
5	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Udinese	7	3	3	1	+6	12
7	Salernitana	7	3	2	2	+4	11
8	Atalanta	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+4	10
10	Roma	5	3	0	2	+3	9
11	Bologna	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Spezia	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Fiorentina	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Empoli	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Monza	6	2	0	4	-2	6
17	Lecce	6	0	4	2	-2	4
18	Verona	6	1	0	5	-7	3
19	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-7	2
20	Cremonese	6	0	2	4	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Atalanta	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Roma	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Lazio	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Milan	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Udinese	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Inter	6	3	0	3	-2	9
8	Torino	6	3	0	3	-2	9
9	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Empoli	6	1	3	2	-4	6
11	Salernitana	6	1	3	2	-5	6
12	Fiorentina	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Lecce	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Sassuolo	7	1	2	4	-8	5
15	Cremonese	7	0	4	3	-4	4
16	Bologna	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Monza	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Verona	6	0	2	4	-6	2
20	Spezia	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.