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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lorient

T T U T S

0–1

Full-time

Marseille

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

29%

43%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

71%

29%

Both score Ø 79%

86%

71%

Average goals

3,7

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

2,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 17. · Marseille 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	7	5	2	0	+11	17
2	Paris SG	7	5	0	2	+13	15
3	Rennes	8	4	3	1	+6	15
4	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	13
5	Lens	7	4	1	2	+0	13
6	Angers	8	4	1	3	-6	13
7	Marseille	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Montpellier	7	3	2	2	+4	11
9	Monaco	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Lyon	7	2	4	1	+3	10
11	St Etienne	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Bordeaux	7	2	3	2	+2	9
13	Brest	7	3	0	4	-4	9
14	Metz	7	2	2	3	+0	8
15	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-1	8
16	Nimes	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-2	7
18	Strasbourg	7	1	0	6	-10	3
19	Reims	7	0	2	5	-7	2
20	Dijon	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Montpellier	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Lens	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Monaco	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Nantes	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Angers	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+5	6
9	Bordeaux	4	1	3	0	+3	6
10	Metz	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Brest	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Nice	3	2	0	1	-1	6
14	Lyon	3	1	2	0	+3	5
15	Marseille	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+1	4
17	Nimes	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Strasbourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3
19	Dijon	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Reims	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+5	8
3	Lille	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Nice	4	2	1	1	+2	7
5	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Angers	4	2	0	2	-6	6
7	Lyon	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	St Etienne	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Nimes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Lens	4	1	1	2	-4	4
11	Bordeaux	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Monaco	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Lorient	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Brest	4	1	0	3	-5	3
15	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Reims	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Metz	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Nantes	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Strasbourg	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Dijon	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.