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Superligaen

Referee: M Tykgaard

Midtjylland

S S T T S

2–0

Full-time

Aarhus

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Midtjylland Aarhus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Superligaen · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

58%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

75%

58%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,28 xG 0,76

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 12

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Midtjylland 2. · Aarhus 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	FC Copenhagen	13	7	4	2	+10	+9.8	25
2	Midtjylland	12	7	3	2	+8	+5.4	24
3	Aarhus	12	6	5	1	+15	+1.5	23
4	Silkeborg	13	5	6	2	+6	-0.8	21
5	Nordsjaelland	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.2	19
6	Brondby	13	5	4	4	+4	+6.4	19
7	Randers FC	12	4	6	2	+3	+0.2	18
8	Viborg	13	4	5	4	+3	-1.5	17
9	Aalborg	13	4	2	7	-12	-8.3	14
10	Sonderjyske	13	3	2	8	-15	-9.4	11
11	Lyngby	13	1	6	6	-8	-2.7	9
12	Vejle	13	1	1	11	-19	-5.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aarhus	7	4	3	0	+11	+1.4	15
2	Midtjylland	5	5	0	0	+8	+5.2	15
3	FC Copenhagen	6	4	2	0	+7	+5.8	14
4	Nordsjaelland	7	3	4	0	+7	+2.8	13
5	Silkeborg	7	3	3	1	+3	+0.1	12
6	Brondby	6	3	2	1	+4	+2.7	11
7	Viborg	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.8	11
8	Aalborg	6	3	0	3	-5	-2.9	9
9	Randers FC	6	2	2	2	+0	+0.4	8
10	Sonderjyske	6	2	2	2	-3	-3.4	8
11	Lyngby	7	1	3	3	-4	-0.7	6
12	Vejle	7	1	1	5	-8	-1.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	FC Copenhagen	7	3	2	2	+3	+4.0	11
2	Randers FC	6	2	4	0	+3	-0.2	10
3	Silkeborg	6	2	3	1	+3	-0.9	9
4	Midtjylland	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.2	9
5	Aarhus	5	2	2	1	+4	+0.1	8
6	Brondby	7	2	2	3	+0	+3.7	8
7	Viborg	7	1	3	3	+0	+0.3	6
8	Nordsjaelland	5	2	0	3	-2	+2.4	6
9	Aalborg	7	1	2	4	-7	-5.4	5
10	Lyngby	6	0	3	3	-4	-2.1	3
11	Sonderjyske	7	1	0	6	-12	-6.1	3
12	Vejle	6	0	0	6	-11	-4.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.