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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Sp Braga

S T T S T

2–0

Full-time

Farense

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

50%

13%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 32%

38%

25%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,4

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,35 xG 0,20

72% Possession 28%

18 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 5. · Farense 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+28	+22.5	27
2	Porto	8	7	0	1	+14	+11.8	21
3	Santa Clara	9	6	0	3	+3	+6.9	18
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
5	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+2.3	14
6	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+1	+3.5	14
7	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+1	+1.9	14
8	Famalicao	9	3	4	2	+2	-3.6	13
9	Casa Pia	9	3	2	4	-4	-2.8	11
10	Gil Vicente	9	2	4	3	-3	-3.3	10
11	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.0	9
12	AVS	8	2	3	3	-4	-3.1	9
13	Rio Ave	8	2	2	4	-7	-4.8	8
14	Arouca	9	2	1	6	-12	-10.5	7
15	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-7	-3.8	6
16	Estrela	8	1	2	5	-8	-7.3	5
17	Nacional	8	1	2	5	-9	-0.8	5
18	Farense	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+12.6	15
2	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.8	12
4	Santa Clara	5	4	0	1	+2	+5.0	12
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.5	8
6	Moreirense	4	2	2	0	+3	-0.2	8
7	Rio Ave	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.1	8
8	AVS	4	2	2	0	+2	-0.7	8
9	Famalicao	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
10	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
11	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.2	7
12	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	+1.3	7
13	Estoril	5	2	1	2	-2	-6.0	7
14	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
15	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.7	4
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Farense	4	1	0	3	-6	-3.6	3
18	Boavista	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+19	+13.7	15
2	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.3	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.9	6
6	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-2	+3.7	6
7	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.3	5
8	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.3	5
9	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
10	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.9	4
11	Arouca	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.7	3
12	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-2	-3.0	2
13	Nacional	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.9	2
14	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-8	-5.7	2
15	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	-5.2	1
16	Estrela	4	0	1	3	-5	-4.4	1
17	AVS	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.4	1
18	Rio Ave	4	0	0	4	-9	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.