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Ligue 1

Referee: G Angoula

Toulouse

S S S T U

5–1

Full-time

Nice

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 32%

35%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

41%

65%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,84 xG 1,99

43% Possession 57%

22 Shots 15

10 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 8. · Nice 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	18	14	1	3	+19	+10.5	43
2	Paris SG	18	13	3	2	+25	+16.7	42
3	Marseille	17	10	2	5	+19	+10.1	32
4	Lille	18	10	2	6	+8	+6.4	32
5	Lyon	17	9	3	5	+8	+7.1	30
6	Rennes	17	8	6	3	+5	-0.3	30
7	Strasbourg	17	7	3	7	+5	+5.1	24
8	Toulouse	17	6	5	6	+2	+2.4	23
9	Monaco	18	7	2	9	-5	+2.8	23
10	Angers	17	6	4	7	-2	-11.9	22
11	Brest	17	6	4	7	-4	+1.3	22
12	Lorient	18	5	7	6	-7	+1.9	22
13	Le Havre	17	4	6	7	-8	-2.4	18
14	Nice	17	5	3	9	-10	-10.4	18
15	Paris FC	17	4	4	9	-9	-6.5	16
16	Nantes	17	3	5	9	-12	-12.7	14
17	Auxerre	18	3	3	12	-14	-5.6	12
18	Metz	17	3	3	11	-20	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+18	+10.1	25
2	Lens	9	8	0	1	+13	+11.5	24
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+14	+8.9	20
4	Lille	9	6	1	2	+8	+8.1	19
5	Lyon	8	6	0	2	+8	+8.3	18
6	Rennes	8	5	2	1	+10	+6.4	17
7	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+10	+10.1	16
8	Lorient	9	4	4	1	+3	+5.1	16
9	Monaco	10	5	1	4	+0	+4.8	16
10	Brest	9	4	3	2	+3	+7.4	15
11	Angers	8	4	2	2	+5	-1.3	14
12	Nice	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.1	14
13	Le Havre	9	3	4	2	+2	+6.4	13
14	Toulouse	9	3	3	3	+0	+3.8	12
15	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	-1	+3.7	10
16	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.1	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.5	8
18	Nantes	8	1	2	5	-7	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	9	6	1	2	+6	-1.0	19
2	Paris SG	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.5	17
3	Lille	9	4	1	4	+0	-1.7	13
4	Rennes	9	3	4	2	-5	-6.8	13
5	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	+1.2	12
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+0	-1.2	12
7	Toulouse	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.5	11
8	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-5	-6.0	9
9	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-5	-5.0	8
10	Paris FC	9	2	2	5	-6	-6.6	8
11	Angers	9	2	2	5	-7	-10.6	8
12	Monaco	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.1	7
13	Brest	8	2	1	5	-7	-6.1	7
14	Lorient	9	1	3	5	-10	-3.3	6
15	Le Havre	8	1	2	5	-10	-8.8	5
16	Nice	8	1	1	6	-10	-9.4	4
17	Metz	9	1	1	7	-17	-13.0	4
18	Auxerre	9	0	2	7	-13	-9.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.