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Ligue 1

Referee: Jérôme Brisard

Nice

T T U T U

3–2

Full-time

Lyon

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

29%

71%

Points per game

1,1

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

71%

29%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,60 xG 3,39

31% Possession 69%

5 Shots 29

4 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 15

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 16

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 12. · Lyon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	5	2	1	+8	+5.2	17
2	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+7	+6.1	16
3	Marseille	7	5	0	2	+10	+5.5	15
4	Lyon	7	5	0	2	+4	+3.7	15
5	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.7	13
6	Lens	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
7	Lille	7	3	2	2	+4	+3.1	11
8	Paris FC	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.3	10
9	Toulouse	7	3	1	3	-1	+0.6	10
10	Rennes	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.7	10
11	Brest	7	2	2	3	+0	+0.3	8
12	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	-2.7	8
13	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-7	-1.5	7
14	Le Havre	7	1	3	3	-2	+2.5	6
15	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-2	-5.1	6
16	Auxerre	7	2	0	5	-5	-2.2	6
17	Angers	7	1	2	4	-8	-7.4	5
18	Metz	7	0	2	5	-11	-8.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.7	10
2	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
3	Marseille	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.3	9
4	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
5	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.1	9
6	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
7	Nice	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.7	7
8	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.2	7
9	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
10	Paris FC	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
11	Lorient	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
12	Auxerre	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.0	6
13	Brest	4	1	2	1	+2	+2.5	5
14	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+1	+4.6	5
15	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
16	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.5	4
17	Angers	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.3	4
18	Metz	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.1	7
2	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.3	7
3	Lens	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.2	7
4	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.2	6
5	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.0	6
6	Lyon	3	2	0	1	+0	-1.4	6
7	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
8	Paris FC	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.9	4
9	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
10	Monaco	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
11	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
12	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	-4.3	2
13	Le Havre	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.1	1
14	Nice	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.5	1
15	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
16	Lorient	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
17	Auxerre	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.3	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.