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Serie B

Referee: L Massimi

Bari

T S T T U

1–2

Full-time

Sudtirol

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bari Sudtirol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

46%

33%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,57 xG 2,25

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bari 19. · Sudtirol 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	25	16	5	4	+28	+22.9	53
2	Frosinone	24	14	7	3	+22	+5.2	49
3	Palermo	25	13	9	3	+23	+8.0	48
4	Monza	24	14	6	4	+17	+10.0	48
5	Catanzaro	25	11	8	6	+8	-1.3	41
6	Modena	25	11	7	7	+14	+7.1	40
7	Juve Stabia	24	9	11	4	+2	+0.7	38
8	Cesena	25	11	4	10	-2	+4.3	37
9	Sudtirol	24	6	12	6	+1	-4.4	30
10	Carrarese	25	7	9	9	-4	-6.9	30
11	Sampdoria	25	7	8	10	-5	+0.9	29
12	Padova	25	7	8	10	-6	-5.9	29
13	Empoli	24	7	7	10	-4	+0.1	28
14	Avellino	24	7	7	10	-11	-13.6	28
15	Virtus Entella	25	5	10	10	-11	-6.1	25
16	Reggiana	24	6	6	12	-8	-2.8	24
17	Mantova	25	6	5	14	-16	-1.5	23
18	Spezia	24	5	7	12	-10	+1.8	22
19	Bari	24	4	9	11	-17	-13.0	21
20	Pescara	24	2	9	13	-21	-5.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	12	10	0	2	+17	+10.6	30
2	Palermo	13	9	3	1	+17	+5.3	30
3	Monza	12	9	2	1	+13	+7.4	29
4	Catanzaro	13	7	5	1	+9	+0.6	26
5	Juve Stabia	12	6	6	0	+8	+1.9	24
6	Frosinone	11	7	2	2	+13	+3.2	23
7	Sampdoria	13	6	4	3	+4	+3.1	22
8	Modena	13	6	3	4	+8	-0.7	21
9	Virtus Entella	12	5	6	1	+6	-1.4	21
10	Carrarese	12	5	5	2	+7	+2.2	20
11	Sudtirol	12	5	3	4	+4	-2.9	18
12	Cesena	12	5	3	4	+1	+3.5	18
13	Avellino	12	5	3	4	-3	-8.1	18
14	Empoli	13	3	7	3	+4	+3.4	16
15	Reggiana	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.7	16
16	Padova	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.7	14
17	Bari	12	3	5	4	-3	-6.8	14
18	Mantova	12	4	2	6	-7	+0.3	14
19	Spezia	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.8	13
20	Pescara	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	13	7	5	1	+9	+2.0	26
2	Venezia	13	6	5	2	+11	+12.3	23
3	Modena	12	5	4	3	+6	+7.9	19
4	Monza	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.5	19
5	Cesena	13	6	1	6	-3	+0.8	19
6	Palermo	12	4	6	2	+6	+2.6	18
7	Catanzaro	12	4	3	5	-1	-1.9	15
8	Padova	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.2	15
9	Juve Stabia	12	3	5	4	-6	-1.2	14
10	Sudtirol	12	1	9	2	-3	-1.5	12
11	Empoli	11	4	0	7	-8	-3.4	12
12	Avellino	12	2	4	6	-8	-5.5	10
13	Carrarese	13	2	4	7	-11	-9.1	10
14	Spezia	12	2	3	7	-5	+2.6	9
15	Mantova	13	2	3	8	-9	-1.8	9
16	Reggiana	12	2	2	8	-9	-1.1	8
17	Sampdoria	12	1	4	7	-9	-2.2	7
18	Bari	12	1	4	7	-14	-6.2	7
19	Pescara	11	0	4	7	-16	-1.8	4
20	Virtus Entella	13	0	4	9	-17	-4.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.