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Eredivisie

Referee: Allard Lindhout

Ajax

S U S S S

4–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,8

2,3

Scored

3,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 48%

75%

20%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

100%

20%

Both score Ø 58%

75%

40%

Average goals

4,8

2,0

Scored

3,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

66% Possession 34%

29 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heerenveen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	5	3	2	0	+6	11
2	Ajax	4	3	1	0	+11	10
3	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Twente	5	2	3	0	+4	9
5	Willem II	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+5	7
8	Utrecht	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Heerenveen	5	1	3	1	+2	6
10	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+1	6
11	Den Haag	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	VVV Venlo	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-5	5
14	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	FC Emmen	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	For Sittard	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Waalwijk	5	0	1	4	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Twente	3	1	2	0	+2	5
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Heerenveen	3	0	3	0	+0	3
9	VVV Venlo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	FC Emmen	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Den Haag	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Willem II	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	For Sittard	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Zwolle	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Heracles	3	0	1	2	-6	1
17	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Willem II	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Vitesse	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Twente	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Heracles	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Utrecht	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Den Haag	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	VVV Venlo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Waalwijk	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	For Sittard	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	FC Emmen	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.