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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Aves

T T T S T

2–3

Full-time

Famalicao

S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,3

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

18 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 7

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Aves 13. · Famalicao 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+9	9
2	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+2	8
3	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+5	6
7	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+3	3
13	Aves	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2
16	Setubal	3	0	2	1	-4	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-4	2
18	Maritimo	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+3	3
7	Aves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tondela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
2	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Belenenses	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-2	2
11	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-5	1
13	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
16	Setubal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
17	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	0	1	-4	0
18	Aves	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.