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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Brentford

T S U T T

3–0

Full-time

Derby

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

1,2

2,4

Scored

0,4

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

49% Possession 51%

22 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 19. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Swansea	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Charlton	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Fulham	5	3	0	2	+5	9
6	Preston	5	3	0	2	+4	9
7	Sheffield Weds	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	West Brom	5	2	3	0	+2	9
9	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Millwall	5	2	2	1	-2	8
11	Reading	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	QPR	5	2	1	2	-1	7
13	Blackburn	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	Cardiff	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	-3	7
16	Derby	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Middlesbrough	6	1	3	2	-1	6
18	Luton	5	1	1	3	-1	4
19	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-2	4
20	Hull	5	1	1	3	-3	4
21	Barnsley	5	1	1	3	-5	4
22	Wigan	5	1	0	4	-7	3
23	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-5	1
24	Stoke	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Swansea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Fulham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Reading	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Wigan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Hull	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	West Brom	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Luton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Brentford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-4	2
18	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-4	1
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Wigan	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.