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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Farense

T T T U

0–1

Full-time

Rio Ave

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

50%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 6

1 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Farense 18. · Rio Ave 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Porto	5	3	1	1	+7	10
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	7
5	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	+2	6
7	Nacional	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Maritimo	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Moreirense	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	-3	5
14	Tondela	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Portimonense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-3	3
17	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-6	2
18	Farense	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Tondela	3	1	1	1	-3	4
7	Nacional	3	0	3	0	+0	3
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Farense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Porto	2	1	1	0	+5	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Boavista	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.