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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Sp Lisbon

S S S S U

1–1

Full-time

Porto

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,7

2,5

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+2,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

75%

Points per game

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 21

6 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Portimonense	4	2	0	2	+2	6
9	Gil Vicente	4	2	0	2	+1	6
10	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+3	5
11	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-6	4
13	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-9	4
14	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	3
16	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Famalicao	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Belenenses	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-4	4
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+3	3
10	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Portimonense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
13	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Famalicao	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-5	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.