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Bundesliga
Referee: D Aytekin
RB Leipzig
U T T S T
1–4
Full-time
Bayern Munich
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
4,8
Scored
1,5
3,7
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,5
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
0%
67%
Average goals
2,0
4,0
Scored
1,3
3,0
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%
10 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 6
4 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match RB Leipzig 10. · Bayern Munich 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolfsburg 4 4 0 0 +5 12
2 Dortmund 4 3 0 1 +4 9
3 Mainz 4 3 0 1 +4 9
4 Freiburg 4 2 2 0 +2 8
5 Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 +6 7
6 Bayern Munich 3 2 1 0 +6 7
7 FC Koln 4 2 1 1 +2 7
8 Union Berlin 4 1 3 0 +1 6
9 Hoffenheim 4 1 1 2 +1 4
10 RB Leipzig 3 1 0 2 +2 3
11 Bochum 3 1 0 2 +0 3
12 Bielefeld 3 0 3 0 +0 3
13 Stuttgart 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Ein Frankfurt 3 0 2 1 -3 2
15 Augsburg 4 0 2 2 -7 2
16 M'gladbach 3 0 1 2 -5 1
17 Greuther Furth 4 0 1 3 -9 1
18 Hertha 3 0 0 3 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

RB Leipzig Bayern Munich
12′
R. Lewandowski 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 J. Musiala
↦ S. Gnabry
47′
J. Musiala 0–2
A. Davies
54′
L. Sané 0–3
J. Musiala
J. Gvardiol 🔁
↦ Angeliño
58′
E. Forsberg 🔁
↦ Dani Olmo
58′
1–3 K. Laimer
K. Kampl
58′
A. Haïdara 🔁
↦ K. Laimer
59′
59′
🔁 E. Choupo-Moting
↦ R. Lewandowski
59′
🔁 M. Sabitzer
↦ L. Goretzka
Y. Poulsen 🔁
↦ André Silva
71′
75′
🔁 N. Süle
↦ B. Pavard
75′
🔁 J. Stanišić
↦ T. Müller
L. Klostermann 🔁
↦ W. Orban
80′
92′
E. Choupo-Moting 1–4
J. Kimmich
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
1 P. Gulácsi G
4 W. Orban D
3 Angeliño D
22 N. Mukiele D
2 M. Simakan D
44 K. Kampl M
27 K. Laimer M
18 C. Nkunku M
25 Dani Olmo M
17 D. Szoboszlai M
33 André Silva F
Bench (9)
32 J. Gvardiol
10 E. Forsberg
8 A. Haïdara
9 Y. Poulsen
16 L. Klostermann
21 B. Brobbey
14 T. Adams
39 B. Henrichs
31 Josep Martínez

Coach: J. Marsch

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
21 L. Hernández D
5 B. Pavard D
2 D. Upamecano D
19 A. Davies D
8 L. Goretzka M
7 S. Gnabry M
6 J. Kimmich M
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
10 L. Sané M
Bench (9)
42 J. Musiala
13 E. Choupo-Moting
18 M. Sabitzer
4 N. Süle
44 J. Stanišić
26 S. Ulreich
20 B. Sarr
40 M. Tillman
23 T. Nianzou

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,99
U
3,87
B ✓
2,22
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,46
U2,5
2,74
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Aytekin · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.