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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Man United

U S S U S

4–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

21 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 2

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Newcastle 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
2	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Man United	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Everton	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Man City	3	2	0	1	+9	6
8	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Leicester	3	2	0	1	-1	6
10	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
11	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Watford	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
16	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-3	0
19	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-9	0
20	Arsenal	3	0	0	3	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+10	6
2	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Man United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Everton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Man United	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
11	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-3	1
12	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-4	1
13	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-5	0
20	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.