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Taça de Portugal

Referee: João Ferreira

Maria da Fonte

T S S

0–5

Full-time

Arouca

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maria da Fonte Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Anadia	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Lusitânia	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Maria da Fonte	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	Sanjoanense	3	1	1	1	+3	4
15	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	São João Ver	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
18	Vila Real	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Caldas	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
21	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
22	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
23	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
25	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+2	3
28	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
39	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
40	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Machico	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
44	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
47	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Os Limianos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Aliança de Gandra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Vieira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	CF Benfica	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
73	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
74	Lajense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
75	AD Marco 09	2	0	2	0	+0	2
76	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	União de Coimbra	2	0	1	1	-2	1
86	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
137	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
138	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
139	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cinfães	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Rebordosa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Moncarapachense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Moura	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Oliveira Hospital	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	União Santarém	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Brito	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Alcains	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Alpendorada	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Varzim	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Machico	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Vieira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Lagoa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Anadia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Atlético CP	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	CF Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Ferreira Zêzere	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Academica	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Aliança de Gandra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	São João Ver	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Guarda	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Lajense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Caldas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Vianense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Amora	2	1	0	1	-4	3
41	Leça	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	União de Coimbra	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Ovarense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Vila Real	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Fátima	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Coimbrões	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Velense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Arronches e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Peniche	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Abrantes e Benfica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Vieirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Oliveira de Frades	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Ginásio Figueirense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
75	Praia Milfontes	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sanjoanense	2	1	1	0	+5	4
3	Operário	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+4	3
6	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Arronches e Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Os Limianos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Farense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Estrela Vendas Novas	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Lusitânia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Atlético Arcos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Maria da Fonte	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Sertanense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Régua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-2	3
41	AD Marco 09	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Beira-Mar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	São João Ver	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Joane	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	O Elvas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Estarreja	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Bragança	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Cardielense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Maia Lidador	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	União Lamas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Aliança de Gandra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Portel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Felgueiras 1932	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Sacavenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Vieira	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Pedras Salgadas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	CF Benfica	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Juventude Gaula	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	O Grandolense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Macedo Cavaleiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Resende	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Lajense	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.