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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Derby

U S T U U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 21%

13%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

38%

71%

Both score Ø 81%

75%

86%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,36 xG 1,06

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 20. · Southampton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	5	4	0	+20	+15.0	19
2	Middlesbrough	7	5	2	0	+7	+1.9	17
3	Stoke	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.2	15
4	West Brom	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.0	14
5	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+6	+1.9	13
6	Leicester	8	3	4	1	+3	-2.0	13
7	Preston	8	3	4	1	+2	-2.2	13
8	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+2	+0.4	12
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	+2	+0.8	12
10	Hull	9	3	3	3	-2	-5.5	12
11	QPR	8	3	3	2	-2	-0.7	12
12	Birmingham	9	3	3	3	-3	+2.6	12
13	Millwall	8	3	2	3	-6	-0.5	11
14	Ipswich	7	2	4	1	+5	+5.6	10
15	Wrexham	9	2	4	3	-1	-5.2	10
16	Southampton	7	2	3	2	-1	+4.0	9
17	Watford	8	2	3	3	-1	+1.7	9
18	Portsmouth	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.4	9
19	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-1	-3.3	8
20	Derby	8	1	4	3	-4	-4.7	7
21	Blackburn	8	2	1	5	-4	+1.3	7
22	Oxford	8	1	3	4	-2	-0.7	6
23	Sheffield Weds	9	1	3	5	-12	-8.8	6
24	Sheffield United	9	1	0	8	-13	-2.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.4	10
2	Hull	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
3	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+9	+7.1	8
4	Ipswich	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.9	8
5	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.6	8
6	QPR	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
7	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
8	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.7	8
9	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.2	7
10	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
11	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
12	Swansea	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.9	6
13	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
14	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
15	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
16	Portsmouth	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.3	4
17	Wrexham	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.5	3
18	Millwall	4	1	0	3	-8	-1.5	3
19	Oxford	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.4	2
20	Derby	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.5	2
21	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-4	-0.5	1
22	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-13	-6.6	1
23	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-4	+0.3	0
24	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	5	3	2	0	+11	+7.9	11
2	West Brom	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.7	9
3	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+6	+1.8	8
4	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+3	-1.2	8
5	Norwich	4	2	2	0	+3	-3.7	8
6	Millwall	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.0	8
7	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
8	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-4.7	7
9	Swansea	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.5	6
10	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.8	6
11	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.1	5
12	Leicester	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.7	5
13	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.5	5
14	Portsmouth	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
15	Southampton	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.4	5
16	Derby	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.2	5
17	Charlton	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.4	5
18	Oxford	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.0	4
19	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-2.0	4
20	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.5	4
21	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-7	-1.9	3
22	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
23	Watford	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.1	2
24	Hull	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.