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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Nacional

T U T S T

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,4

4,0

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,6

2,6

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,47 xG 1,10

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 5

7 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 14. · Arouca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	+9.2	18
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.7	12
3	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.5	10
5	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.1	10
6	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
7	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.3	8
8	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.5	7
9	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-4	-3.9	6
10	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.5	5
11	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.4	5
12	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-6	-4.7	5
13	Alverca	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.5	4
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.5	4
15	Estrela	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.8	3
16	Rio Ave	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.1	3
17	AVS	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.2	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.8	9
3	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
4	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
5	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
6	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
9	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
10	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
11	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
12	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
13	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
14	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.9	9
3	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
5	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
6	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.9	6
7	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.1	4
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
12	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
14	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
15	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
16	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
17	Arouca	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.5	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.